Syria

Syria is an Arab republic in the Levant that endured 13 years of civil war before December 2024, when Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to topple Bashar al-Assad, ending five decades of Assad family rule. Al-Sharaa was named transitional President in March 2025 and unveiled a 23-minister cabinet, leading the executive directly without a Prime Minister under a constitutional declaration that concentrates power in the presidency. The US permanently revoked comprehensive Syria sanctions on 30 June 2025 and the EU lifted most economic sanctions on 28 May 2025; Syria attracted $28 billion in investment commitments during 2025 and posted its first budget surplus since 1990. GDP remains roughly one-third of its 2011 pre-war level, with reconstruction estimated by the World Bank at $216 billion.

Syria sits at the centre of the wider regional conflict in ways its transitional government cannot control. Assad's fall severed Iran's overland supply corridor to Hezbollah, which Tehran had maintained for four decades. The transitional government has maintained anti-Hezbollah posture and anti-smuggling operations, keeping the Damascus-Beirut arms corridor closed. When Israel's March 2026 campaign displaced populations across Lebanon, over 200,000 people crossed into Syria by early April, roughly 95 per cent of them Syrian nationals returning home. OCHA scaled up humanitarian operations across Syria simultaneously with Lebanon, Iran, Gaza, and Yemen. Following Assad's fall, Israeli forces established nine military bases and outposts in southwestern Syria, from Mount Hermon through Quneitra and Daraa provinces; Netanyahu confirmed a permanent security buffer zone ("yellow line") in April 2026. On 1 July 2026, Syrian and Lebanese officers sat at the same US-led defence table for the first time, joining CENTCOM's regional dialogue in Bahrain, a symbolic step in Damascus's realignment away from Tehran's orbit and towards the US-backed security order taking shape after Assad.

Syria's central paradox is that the country which generated the world's largest refugee crisis since 2011 is now absorbing displaced Lebanese and returning Syrians, governed by a transitional authority with limited capacity to manage the inflow. The severing of the Iran-Hezbollah corridor through Syrian territory removed a supply line that was the backbone of Tehran's proxy network. Turkey maintains forces in northern Syria and reached agreements in January 2026 for phased integration of SDF-held areas into national structures. US forces remain in northeast Syria supporting the SDF. Whether Syria stabilises as a regional buffer or fractures under compounding military, humanitarian, and political pressure is the defining open question for the Levant.