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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
9JUN

Russia loses 100 sq miles in four weeks

3 min read
11:54UTC

ISW data compiled by Russia Matters shows Russia net-lost 38 square miles in the week of 19-26 May, its largest single-week reversal of 2026, and 100 square miles over four weeks. Russia's net advance rate for January-May 2026 is 94% below the same period in 2025.

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Key takeaway

Russia's net advance rate collapsed 94% year-on-year as it net-lost 100 sq mi in four consecutive weeks.

Russia net-lost 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory over four weeks (28 April to 26 May), including 38 sq mi in the week of 19-26 May, according to ISW data compiled by Russia Matters at Harvard's Belfer Center. Russia's operational pattern since the full-scale invasion has been incremental advance punctuated by Kursk-style reversals; a four-week sustained net-loss run is something else.

The net advance rate collapsed 94% year-on-year, from 1,619 sq km in January-May 2025 to 104 sq km in the same window of 2026. Seasonal factors cannot account for that. It tracks the period of Ukraine's most intensive drone campaign against Russian logistics and training infrastructure.

For Russia's defence establishment, the data bites. The 2026 defence budget of 13.5 trillion rubles was calibrated on higher advance rates. At current attrition and territorial costs, each ruble buys less than a fifth of the territory it bought in 2025.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on 21 May that Ukraine's defences are "stabilising the frontline," the closest the Alliance has come to acknowledging a Ukrainian operational advantage. ISW recorded Russia's first net monthly loss since the August 2024 Kursk incursion , then 12 sq mi lost in 5-12 May and 29 sq mi in 12-19 May ; the four-week figure extends that reversal to its deepest point.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia is losing ground in Ukraine at the fastest rate since 2024. Over four weeks from late April to late May, it gave back roughly 100 square miles of territory it had taken earlier in the war. To put that in perspective: in the first five months of 2025, Russia gained around 1,000 square miles. In the same period of 2026, it has gained only about 40 square miles total, and is now losing ground. This military failure is directly connected to Russia's missile escalation: the Kremlin is using its most powerful weapons to create the appearance of military dominance while its troops retreat on the ground.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian logistics, training infrastructure, and refinery supply has degraded the support chain that sustains frontline Russian units. Destroying fuel supply (11 refineries struck in May) and training pipelines (Snizhne and Starobilsk) simultaneously reduces both the operational reach and replacement rate of frontline Russian forces.

Russia's 2026 defence budget was calibrated on the 2025 advance rate of 9.76 sq km per day. At the actual 2026 rate of 2.9 sq km per day during January-April, followed by net losses in May, the budget is funding operations at a cost-per-kilometre roughly five times higher than planned. That fiscal mismatch becomes unsustainable as the National Wealth Fund approaches the floor at which it can no longer cover deficit financing.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Russia's spring-summer offensive plans are operationally bankrupt at current attrition rates; the Kremlin must accept a defensive posture or commit reserves the 2026 budget cannot fund.

  • Opportunity

    Ukraine's demonstrated counterattack capacity strengthens Kyiv's negotiating position in any future ceasefire format by establishing a favourable baseline front line.

Sources:ISW / Critical Threats·ISW / Critical Threats·Russia Matters (Harvard Belfer Center)
Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Russia Matters →Russia →Ukraine →Germany →Kharkiv →Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive →Kremlin →Oreshnik →NATO →Kherson →Moscow →Harvard Belfer Center →Zaporizhzhia →Kursk →Mark Rutte →
First Reported In

Update #18 · Oreshnik doubles as Russia's front collapses

ISW / Critical Threats· 1 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Front stalls as death toll climbs
The front stall on 7 June (no confirmed Russian advances) continues the pattern of Russian net losses documented by ISW (ID:3808), while mounting Mediazona casualties confirm the attrition cost.
Occurred 7 Jun 2026
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This Event
Russia loses 100 sq miles in four weeks
Four consecutive weeks of Russian territorial retreat, culminating in its worst position since August 2024, is the military context in which the dual Oreshnik launch occurred; the weapons escalation and the front-line collapse are directly correlated.
Led to
Russia fires first dual Oreshnik salvo
Russia's territorial collapse over four weeks is the strategic context in which the Oreshnik escalation occurred: military failure driving weapons spectacle.
Occurred 24 May 2026
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ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens
The 91 sq mi net loss to 9 June extends the stall pattern ISW had already recorded showing Russia net-lost 100 sq mi in the four weeks to 26 May.
Occurred 9 Jun 2026
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Different Perspectives
IAEA (Rafael Grossi)
IAEA (Rafael Grossi)
IAEA inspectors logged Zaporizhzhia's 22nd loss of off-site power, ten of them in the last three months, after a thunderstorm knocked out the plant's sole surviving backup line. Grossi reads the accelerating frequency, not any single outage, as the safety signal now that the plant's redundancy is exhausted.
United States (Treasury/OFAC)
United States (Treasury/OFAC)
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Slovakia
Slovakia
Slovakia dropped its hold-out on the EU's 21st sanctions package only after winning a 2028 guarantee phasing out Russian gas, the exact pipeline dependency, roughly 80% of its crude supply, that gave it leverage. Bratislava's climbdown clears the package but leaves the same single-veto mechanism intact for the next round.
Russia (Kremlin and general staff)
Russia (Kremlin and general staff)
General staff chief Gerasimov claimed Donetsk captures on 18 July that ISW says it cannot corroborate, extending a pattern ISW clocked at a 5:1 exaggeration ratio earlier this year. Moscow is conditioning its public for a possible autumn mobilisation after September's Duma elections rather than acknowledging the front has stalled.
Ukraine (Zelenskyy government)
Ukraine (Zelenskyy government)
Zelenskyy dismissed his commander-in-chief, defence minister and chief of general staff within eight days, replacing Syrskyi with Drapatyi and Hnatov with Skybiuk as protesters demanded Syrskyi go and Fedorov return. Kyiv frames the sweep as a bet on manoeuvre capacity ahead of a feared Russian autumn surge, not the disarray critics read into three changes in a week.
The United Kingdom
The United Kingdom
Starmer pledged £300 million in Kyiv on 16 July toward Ukraine's Gripen E squadron, adding to the PURL expansion Trump and Rutte had announced two days earlier. London is paying into a scheme built around a shortfall NATO's own published $4bn-plus pledge does not close against Zelenskyy's roughly $15bn stated need.