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Iran Conflict 2026
16MAY

Thousands march in Tehran under blackout

2 min read
12:41UTC

Thousands rallied in Tehran chanting 'no compromise, no surrender' hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an apology his own political system then repudiated.

ConflictDeveloping

Thousands marched through Tehran on Friday waving Iranian flags and images of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, chanting 'We'll fight, we'll die, we won't accept humiliation' and 'No compromise, no surrender, destruction of Israel.' The demonstrations occurred hours before President Pezeshkian's televised apology to Gulf neighbours — an address whose conciliatory tone was contradicted within hours when IRGC forces struck Dubai, Saudi oil facilities, and Bahrain .

Whether the marches were spontaneous or IRGC-organised is impossible to verify. Iran's internet blackout, now in its ninth consecutive day, has severed the independent reporting channels — social media, encrypted messaging, citizen journalism — that made verification possible during the January 2026 protests . Both readings produce the same operational conclusion. If spontaneous, the war has genuinely mobilised popular sentiment against any form of capitulation. If organised, the IRGC is manufacturing the public mandate it needs to override a president who has twice attempted de-escalation — first with the apology to Gulf States, then by announcing that forces 'should not attack neighbouring countries' — and been ignored both times.

The marchers' slogans track precisely with the hardliner statements that followed Pezeshkian's address. Conservative media activist Meisam Nili declared 'any ceasefire is treason.' Qom lawmaker Mohammad Manan Raeisi called the president's remarks 'humiliating.' The alignment between street chants and elite rhetoric — whether coordinated or coincidental — leaves Pezeshkian isolated between Trump's unconditional surrender demand, which he explicitly rejected , and a domestic political and military establishment that treats his attempt to de-escalate with neighbours as betrayal.

For foreign ministries assessing Iran's internal dynamics, the picture is a system in which the elected president lacks the authority to deliver on any diplomatic commitment he might make. Pezeshkian can neither accept Washington's terms nor persuade his own security apparatus to honour the more modest restraint he has publicly promised. The January crackdown , for which Pezeshkian later apologised , demonstrated that Iran's security forces operate independently of presidential authority in domestic matters. The current war is demonstrating the same independence in external affairs.

First Reported In

Update #27 · Israel kills 41 on failed 1986 airman raid

TRT World· 7 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Thousands march in Tehran under blackout
The demonstrations — whether spontaneous or IRGC-organised — show the visible Iranian public face of the war is not ready for de-escalation, narrowing the political space for any diplomatic off-ramp Pezeshkian might attempt.
Different Perspectives
India (BRICS meeting host, grey-market beneficiary)
India (BRICS meeting host, grey-market beneficiary)
New Delhi hosted the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting on 14 May that Araghchi attended under the Minab168 designation, giving India a front-row seat to Iran's diplomatic positioning. India's state refiners have been absorbing discounted Iranian crude through grey-market routing since April; Brent at $109.30 means every barrel sourced outside the formal market generates a structural saving.
Hengaw / Kurdish human rights monitors
Hengaw / Kurdish human rights monitors
Hengaw's daily reports from Iran's Kurdish provinces remain the sole independent cross-check on Iran's judicial activity during the conflict. Two executions across Qom and Karaj Central prisons on 15 May and five Kurdish detentions on 15-16 May indicate the wartime judicial pipeline is operating independently of military tempo.
Pakistan (mediator and bilateral partner)
Pakistan (mediator and bilateral partner)
Islamabad spent its diplomatic capital as the US-Iran MOU carrier to secure LNG passage for two Qatari vessels through a bilateral Pakistan-Iran agreement, spending its mediation credit for direct economic gain. China's public endorsement of Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May is the structural reward.
China and BRICS bloc
China and BRICS bloc
Beijing endorsed Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May, one day after the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi. Chinese state banks are processing PGSA yuan toll payments; China has not commented on its vessels' continued Hormuz passage, but benefits structurally from a non-dollar toll system it did not design.
Iraq (bilateral passage partner)
Iraq (bilateral passage partner)
Baghdad negotiated a 2-million-barrel VLCC transit without paying PGSA yuan tolls, offering political alignment in lieu of cash. Iraq's position inside Iran's adjacent bloc makes it the natural first bilateral partner and a template for how Tehran structures passage deals with states that cannot afford Western coalition membership.
Bahrain and Qatar (Gulf signatories)
Bahrain and Qatar (Gulf signatories)
Both signed the Western coalition paper while hosting US Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM's Al Udeid base, respectively. Qatar occupies the sharpest contradiction: it is on coalition paper while simultaneously receiving LNG passage through the bilateral Iran-Pakistan track, a position Doha has tacitly accepted from both sides.