Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Iran Conflict 2026
9MAY

Israel hits Iran after Trump said no

3 min read
17:21UTC

Trump publicly urged Netanyahu not to retaliate; on Monday 8 June the IDF struck the Mahshahr petrochemical complex and missile sites inside Iran regardless.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump asked Israel not to strike Iran; Israel struck the next day, exposing his leverage as rhetorical.

President Donald Trump publicly urged Benjamin Netanyahu not to hit back at Iran, saying he would call him and "tell him not to strike back"⁠1. On Monday 8 June the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) struck military targets inside Iran regardless: the Mahshahr Petrochemical Complex in Khuzestan province and surface-to-surface missile launch sites, with blasts reported in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan⁠2. Iranian officials and Israel's Magen David Adom reported minimal-to-no casualties on either side, preliminary⁠3.

Netanyahu reportedly agreed to the request, then struck anyway. For 100 days the war's central gap was passive, with no US-Iran instrument on paper while the fighting ran on; on Monday it turned active. Trump asked his closest ally, in public, to hold fire, and the answer on the ground was the Mahshahr strike.

Two readings hold at once. One is plain defiance: Israel will not let Tehran fix the terms of the exchange, and Trump cannot make it. The other is choreography, a good-cop, bad-cop split that lets Israel apply the kinetic pressure Trump keeps off his own diplomatic ledger. No signed US instrument exists to prove Washington controls the kinetic track, so the burden of demonstrating coordination sits with The White House.

Either way, the strike adds a fresh complication to the negotiating file. Rezaei's $24bn precondition was already unresolved; a unilateral Israeli strike against Trump's stated wish now sits beside it as a US-Israel alignment gap.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Israel's military struck inside Iran on 8 June, hitting a large petrochemical factory in Khuzestan province (south-western Iran) and sites used to launch surface-to-surface missiles. Explosions were also heard in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan. US President Trump had publicly asked Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu not to strike back after Iran's missile attack. Israel struck anyway. Mahshahr is one of Iran's biggest chemical production hubs. Israel hit the same complex in April 2026. Netanyahu reportedly told Trump he had agreed not to strike, then authorised the attack. No verified casualties were reported in the early hours, though that may change.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Israel's coalition politics under Netanyahu require maintaining offensive operational tempo: Ben Gvir and Smotrich's continued participation in government is conditioned on rejecting any ceasefire that does not meet maximalist terms.

Netanyahu's government falls if he accepts US-brokered de-escalation without a full agreement. Compliance with Trump's restraint requests is blocked by Israeli coalition arithmetic, not by strategic disagreement about Iran's threat level.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Trump's public restraint request failing within 24 hours removes his ability to use 'I can control Israel' as a credible bargaining chip with Tehran in ongoing nuclear negotiations.

  • Risk

    A second Mahshahr strike compounds the April damage to Iran's domestic fuel supply, increasing civilian pressure that could either force concessions or harden hardliner resistance to any deal.

First Reported In

Update #121 · Trump said don't strike; Israel struck Iran

Jerusalem Post· 8 Jun 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Office for Budget Responsibility
Office for Budget Responsibility
The OBR's 28 October forecast assumed $82 oil for 2026 and 2027, from market prices for the ten working days to 19 August, and blamed dearer wholesale energy on the war without naming Iran. It expects CPI inflation close to 4% in early 2027 even at that price.
Hengaw, Kurdish rights group
Hengaw, Kurdish rights group
Hengaw reported the 3 November hangings of Amirhossein Maleki and Amirhossein Ebrahimi in Isfahan, saying Ebrahimi was tortured into confessing and that nine of 12 people sentenced to death in the case have now been hanged. Iran's judiciary holds that the defendants killed members of the security forces.
FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit
FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit
FINTRAC worked with the US Treasury on the 6 November designation of eight money services businesses in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Treasury says the businesses still operate, some under new names, so closing them falls to Ottawa.
Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh
Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh
Al-Dakhil cancelled three Mosul International Airport contracts on 7 November over alleged links to armed groups, after meeting Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad. He named no group or company, and said the contracts will go to international companies.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait condemned the Houthi missile fired towards the Madinah region on 5 November and restated its support for Saudi Arabia, the Qatar News Agency reported. Its state tanker company, Kuwait Oil Tankers Company, is among the Gulf state fleets on Iran's expanded Hormuz list.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary
Treasury designated an alleged Chandigarh false-flag network on 4 November and eight Canadian exchangers on 6 November, while State sanctioned alleged MANPADS intermediaries. None of the actions touches an oil buyer; they target the paper, cash and procurement around Iran's trade.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.