Kuwait Petroleum Corporation declared Force majeure on all oil and refined-product exports on Sunday. Production cuts that began Saturday at approximately 100,000 barrels per day were expected to nearly triple by Sunday's end. Kuwait produced approximately 2.6 million barrels per day in January.
Kuwait is the second OPEC producer to invoke Force majeure in a single week. Iraq cut output by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day earlier. Combined, roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of Gulf production capacity is shut in or unable to reach market. The 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait removed approximately 2 million barrels per day from global supply. The current shut-in exceeds that by 75 per cent — and the number is still growing.
The mechanism is logistics, not destruction. Kuwait's wells are not damaged. Its refineries function. The oil has nowhere to go. Every major P&I club cancelled war risk coverage effective midnight 5 March , and major shipping lines suspended Gulf services. Storage is filling. The Strait of Hormuz — through which virtually all Kuwaiti crude exports transit — is commercially sealed. Force majeure signals that KPC does not expect shipping to resume soon.
Brent crude reached $92.69 on Friday . US crude futures posted their largest weekly gain — 35.63% — since the contract began trading in 1983 . Qatar's energy minister warned of $150 per barrel if the Strait remains closed . VLCC freight rates hit an all-time record of $423,736 per day, adding approximately $3–4 per barrel before crude reaches a refinery . The oil shock compounds through two separate timelines: the military campaign, which continues to expand targets across The Gulf, and the insurance collapse, which persists independently of any Ceasefire. Even if hostilities ended tomorrow, commercial shipping would not resume until insurers complete reassessments — a process that typically takes weeks. The war's economic damage has already outrun the war itself.
