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Iran Conflict 2026
9APR

Trump declares Iran deal, signs nothing

4 min read
11:02UTC

Trump posted on Saturday 23 May that the Iran war deal was 'largely negotiated' and Hormuz 'will be opened'; the only paper the White House signed all weekend was a Memorial Day proclamation.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump declared the war nearly settled, yet signed no Iran instrument and published no text.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday 23 May that a deal to end the Iran war had been "largely negotiated" between the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran and other listed countries, adding that the strait of Hormuz "will be opened" 1. the strait is the 33-kilometre chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes; Iran's blockade of it has driven this war since late February. It is the most consequential thing Trump has said about Iran in 86 days of fighting. He signed nothing.

The only presidential instrument the White House published across the 22 to 24 May window was a Memorial Day proclamation 2. No Iran order, no sanctions action, no Hormuz text. The verbal track that has carried this war since 28 February reached its loudest moment on a weekend that produced zero signed Iran paper , extending the streak that ran unbroken through the prior week's two non-Iran financial orders .

On Sunday 24 May, Axios reported the shape of what had been agreed 3. It is a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), extendable by consent, not a treaty. During those 60 days Hormuz reopens toll-free, Iran clears its mines, the US lifts the naval blockade and issues waivers letting Tehran sell oil, while US forces stay in the region and withdraw only if a final deal follows. The draft rests on Iran's 14-point document and was approved on the Iranian side by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and on the US side by JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner 4. Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, repeated the American conditions: no weapon, Hormuz open without tolls, uranium handed over 5.

The MOU text has not been published. The sequence front-loads the reversible concessions, blockade lift and oil waivers, and defers the one irreversible commitment, the uranium, to a later negotiation. That ordering lets Tehran collect sanctions and shipping relief across the 60 days while never binding itself to surrender the stockpile.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

On Saturday 23 May, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social saying a deal to end the Iran war had been 'largely negotiated'. The next day, the news outlet Axios reported the shape of that deal: a 60-day temporary agreement (called a memorandum of understanding, or MOU) under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz (the critical sea passage through which about 20% of the world's oil flows), clear its naval mines from the waterway, and negotiate a pause on its nuclear programme. In exchange, the US would lift its naval blockade and issue waivers on some oil sanctions. The agreement would be approved on Iran's side by the Speaker of Iran's parliament, and on the US side by Vice President JD Vance and two presidential advisers. The catch: none of this has been formally signed. Trump made similar verbal deal announcements at least four times before this one, and Iran denied or contradicted each of them within hours. The MOU text was not published as of Sunday 24 May, leaving it as a reported verbal agreement rather than a binding document.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Trump's preference for verbal deal-making over signed instruments is a structural feature of his administration, not a tactical choice. The White House presidential-actions index recorded zero signed Iran instruments across 80 days of war before this declaration.

Truth Social posts function as policy statements in this administration because the executive can claim they represent presidential intent without triggering congressional notification requirements that a formal executive order or treaty would impose.

The Iranian side's use of Ghalibaf rather than Pezeshkian or Araghchi reflects a parallel constraint: the Majlis and IRGC institutional bloc must be included in any deal architecture, or hardliners can torpedo implementation. Ghalibaf bridges that bloc. But his approval is not the same as Khamenei's, and the Supreme Leader's uranium-stay directive three days earlier sits in direct tension with the MOU's enrichment-suspension commitment.

Escalation

Marginally de-escalatory on the military track but no change on the nuclear track. The MOU framework, if it holds, pauses kinetic activity and begins a Hormuz reopening. But Khamenei's uranium directive three days earlier means the nuclear gap has widened since the deal's reported terms were agreed. The deal declaration itself creates a new risk: if negotiations fail publicly, the reversion to conflict may be sharper than if no deal had been announced.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A failed public deal announcement carries greater escalation risk than no announcement, because domestic audiences on both sides will have raised expectations to manage.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Opportunity

    If the 60-day MOU holds through formal signing, it creates the first institutional anchor for a permanent settlement and removes the immediate military pressure on Hormuz.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    Ghalibaf's parliamentary approval of an MOU, if accepted by all parties, establishes that Iran's Majlis can bind the executive on foreign policy — a constitutional precedent with long-term implications for Iranian governance.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #106 · Trump says deal; OFAC says nothing

NBC News· 24 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Civilians and prisoners inside Iran
Civilians and prisoners inside Iran
Mojtaba Kian was hanged in under 50 days from arrest, the fastest wartime espionage case in Hengaw's record, as Trump announced a peace deal. Amnesty places Iran's 2026 execution count above 200 at its fastest pace in 44 years; the diplomatic track has not altered the internal enforcement tempo.
China
China
Beijing accepted a Pakistani civilian briefing mission on the same day OFAC's GL V expired, keeping itself inside the deal architecture without being a named signatory. How Chinese banks respond to Monday's Hengli dollar-clearing decision is the first real-world test of whether the verbal MOU carries any institutional weight.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Islamabad split its highest-level delegation: army chief Munir to Tehran on the security track, Prime Minister Sharif and Foreign Minister Dar to Beijing before Monday's GL V-driven bank compliance decision. The architecture routes the deal's hardest problem, IRGC buy-in, through the general-officer channel that has extracted every wartime concession.
Israeli government
Israeli government
An unnamed Israeli official told the Times of Israel that Trump privately told Netanyahu the deal will dismantle Iran's nuclear programme and remove all its uranium, terms incompatible with what Tehran and a Reuters source describe. If Netanyahu believes he was promised full dismantlement and the deal delivers less, Israel holds a sabotage veto before any signature.
Iranian Foreign Ministry
Iranian Foreign Ministry
Spokesman Esmail Baghaei told state agency IRNA that nuclear issues are 'not in the current negotiations text' and the sequencing is: end the war first, then negotiate nuclear over two months. Baghaei's formulation preserves Khamenei's 21 May uranium-stay directive while letting the civilian diplomacy track continue.
Donald Trump / White House
Donald Trump / White House
Trump declared the Iran deal 'largely negotiated' on 23 May via Truth Social and signed nothing; the White House's only paper was a Memorial Day proclamation. The verbal-track method converts maximum political signalling into minimum legal exposure: no congressional notification, no Senate treaty ratification, no instrument for Iran to formally reject.