Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Iran Conflict 2026
5MAR

Kyiv ends energy truce, hits Ryazan refinery

3 min read
09:10UTC

Ukrainian drones set a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region on fire on 15 October, and Zelenskyy told the Financial Times "We're done" with the energy ceasefire.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Ukraine is back to hitting Russian refineries, and says it damaged six of the jets that carry glide bombs.

Ukrainian drones hit a refinery in Ryazan region, south-east of Moscow, on 15 October. Governor Pavel Malkov and the Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed a fire⁠1. The same day Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times "We're done" with the energy ceasefire, and told the broadcaster Piers Morgan that "we are losing a strong partner"⁠2.

The strike picks up a campaign in which Ukraine's Defence Ministry claimed on 4 October to have disabled 51% of Russian refining capacity. Zelenskyy had since offered to halt refinery strikes if Russia stopped hitting Ukraine's grid. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, never accepted the trade: on 13 October he said only that "contacts on this matter continue"⁠3.

Moscow and Kyiv now blame each other for the collapse. Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, called Ukraine's oil strikes a "direct and crude challenge to President Trump", and Peskov said Ukraine had never stopped them⁠4. Zelenskyy says Ukraine held off for two days after Trump's announcement⁠5. Neither account has been verified.

Ukraine also fired Neptune missiles, a Ukrainian anti-ship system adapted to hit land targets, at Borisoglebsk air base in Voronezh region during the night before the Ryazan strike⁠6. The Ukrainian General Staff said all six Su-34M fighter-bombers suffered "damage of varying degrees". Satellite imagery from 15 October, verified by Reuters, shows destruction at the airfield, but Reuters could not verify the aircraft claim⁠7. The Su-34 is a main Russian carrier of guided glide bombs, the weapon that killed 23 people in a Zaporizhzhia apartment block on 10 October.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

On 11 October President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's power stations and oil plants. On the night of 14 to 15 October Russia launched a huge drone raid on Ukraine. The same night and next day, Ukraine fired missiles at a Russian air base and hit an oil refinery in Ryazan, south-east of Moscow. President Zelenskyy now says the pause is over, and Kyiv and Moscow each accuse the other of breaking it.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Neither side has a reason to stop first without a written mechanism. Ukraine's refinery strikes and Russia's grid strikes hit each other's winter economy, and an oral truce leaves no one to rule on who broke it.

The Su-34 carries Russia's guided glide bombs, which strike front-line towns from beyond the reach of most Ukrainian air defence. Striking the aircraft on the ground, as Kyiv says it did at Borisoglebsk, is one of the few ways it can reduce those launches.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Ukraine's refinery strikes resume ahead of winter, when Russian domestic fuel demand and export plans both peak.

  • Risk

    Washington may hold Kyiv responsible for the end of a truce it announced, with costs for Ukraine's access to US support.

First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

PBS NewsHour / AP· 17 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
G7 members agreed on 2 October to release up to 100 million barrels through the IEA over four months, front-loading diesel.
China
China
China signed the 15 October text reaffirming the Resolution 2216 arms embargo on the Houthis. The Wall Street Journal reported that Conflict Armament Research found Chinese parts in a Houthi copy of Iran's Kheibarshekan missile.
Russia
Russia
Russia joined the 15 October consensus condemning the Houthis, a month after vetoing a mandate for a UN panel of experts on Iran sanctions on 17 September. One Western official told Bloomberg that Moscow is providing Iran with missiles, and the White House rejected the assessment.
India
India
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval raised seafarer safety with Mohsen Rezaei on 12 October, after a drone hit the Petro Dolphin with 11 Indians aboard at Sohar. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar urged that attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers be avoided.
Lebanon
Lebanon
President Joseph Aoun met UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix in Beirut on 14 October as UNIFIL winds down before its mandate ends on 31 December. Two days later Qatar's prime minister pledged in Beirut to fund a solar plant for Lebanon.
Kataib Hezbollah
Kataib Hezbollah
The militia announced a halt to operations except against "hostile aircraft" and denied any disarmament deal with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. A day later Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani urged eliminating "remaining traces of the US presence in other arenas".

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.