21SEP

Al-Zaidi gives Tehran a seat at the inquiry

2 min read

15:34UTC

Ali al-Zaidi approved an Iranian request for a joint Iraq-Iran investigation into the platforms used to launch the drones that struck the Saudi pipeline.

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ConflictDeveloping

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi approved an Iranian request for a joint Iraq-Iran investigation into the platforms used to launch the drones that struck Saudi Arabia's export pipeline, on Saturday 12 September 2026 ¹. The approval followed his dismissal of two Maysan security chiefs over the same launches ².

A joint inquiry commits neither government to a finding, sets no timetable on its own, and gives each side sight of what the other collects. Iran asked for the access and Baghdad granted it, which places Tehran inside the examination of an attack launched from Iraqi territory towards a third country.

The two capitals already run errands for each other. Iraq's parliament speaker asked Iran's Majlis speaker on 19 August for special consideration for Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz , a favour requested in the opposite direction weeks earlier. Baghdad is now paying in procedure for an attack it says came from its own ground, and the investigative council it created keeps running in parallel.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

After drones launched from Iraq hit a Saudi oil pipeline, Iraq began investigating who fired them and from where. Iran asked to take part in examining the launch platforms, and Iraq's prime minister said yes. That means Iranian investigators get to see the physical evidence from an attack that was fired at Saudi Arabia from Iraqi ground. Iran does not come to this as a neutral party. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran-linked groups of running this kind of campaign, so letting Iranian investigators near the hardware is a decision with consequences for what the inquiry can eventually say.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Iraq needs a finding fast enough to satisfy Riyadh and survivable enough to keep Tehran cooperating, and no single inquiry does both cleanly.

A joint investigation costs Baghdad least of the instruments available. It commits neither government to a conclusion, sets no timetable on its own, and gives each side sight of what the other collects.

Baghdad also has less to concede than it looks. The special investigative council it appointed on 12 September runs in parallel and answers to the prime minister alone, so approving Iranian access adds a channel rather than replacing the Iraqi one.

Escalation

Sideways. The approval keeps Tehran inside the process rather than outside objecting to it, and the point that would tip it is the first published finding from either the joint examination or the Iraqi council.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Iranian investigators gain access to hardware that could identify the makers and operators of the launch platforms.
Immediate · Reported
Risk
A joint finding that names nobody would leave Riyadh with an Iraqi answer that Tehran co-signed, which is weaker than either government producing one alone.
Short term · Assessed
Precedent
Iraq has established that a state implicated in an attack from its territory can be seated at the inquiry into it.
Long term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

Primary parallel: Iran led the technical investigation into the shoot-down of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 near Tehran on 8 January 2020, having fired the missiles itself, and held the flight recorders for months before they were read abroad. The party with the strongest interest in the finding controlled the evidence.

Counter-parallel: The Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team took the opposite course after MH17 was shot down over Ukraine on 17 July 2014. Russia was implicated and kept off the investigating team, and the inquiry named suspects in 2019. Baghdad has chosen the first design rather than the second.

Consensus view: Baghdad's account, carried by the Iraqi News Agency, has al-Zaidi granting an Iranian request for a joint examination of the launch platforms, the same day he sacked two Maysan security chiefs.

Counter-view: Riyadh has tied its own restraint to Baghdad stopping further attacks, and the party Iraq has now seated at the examination is the state whose Revolutionary Guard was named in the Saudi assessment of 6 August as coordinating this campaign .

Key tension: Whether shared access to the platforms speeds an Iraqi finding or fixes what that finding can say, which the approval itself does not determine.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Ali al-Zaidi →Iran →Iraq →Al Jazeera →Russia →Baghdad →Riyadh →Majlis →Tehran →Saudi Arabia →Ukraine →Strait of Hormuz →

First Reported In

Update #178 · Saudi bypass hit, and Riyadh holds fire

Al Jazeera· 13 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Baghdad sacks two Maysan chiefs over the launches

The joint Iraq-Iran inquiry followed the dismissals and the Iranian request.

Occurred 12 Sept 2026

Read story →

This Event

Al-Zaidi gives Tehran a seat at the inquiry

Iran gains a formal role in examining an attack fired from Iraqi soil, alongside the Iraqi council already investigating it.

Different Perspectives

Shipping and insurance industry

UKMTO counted about 20 US-facilitated Hormuz transits a day to 11 September against only 6 visible on AIS, with traffic still around 90% below the 138-a-day pre-war baseline. War-risk underwriters cannot price hulls they cannot see, or resolve whether the tanker El Gaia hit a mine, as Iran claims, or a missile and drone, as CENTCOM says.

European refiners

European refiners, including Poland's Orlen, absorbed a roughly $26 gap between Dated Brent at $130.80 on 15 September and ICE Brent futures settling at $103.87 on 18 September, a spread that widened from $13.45 on 9 September rather than newly opening. Their futures hedges no longer cover what they now pay for physical barrels.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Aramco zeroed European term customers' October allocations and rerouted roughly 60 million barrels to Asia through Ras Tanura and Sohar, using Red Sea and Gulf terminal capacity built years ago to cut Hormuz exposure. Riyadh reallocated existing supply rather than negotiating a shortfall with Europe.

Qatar

Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum on 20 September that Bessent's two-year Hormuz-obsolescence forecast is wrong, and that Doha has deliberately built no bypass pipeline. Qatar's gas exports run through one waterway by choice, not oversight.

Iran (foreign ministry and Majlis)

Iran's foreign ministry and 130 Majlis deputies moved toward NPT withdrawal this week, with lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani filing a triple-urgency bill on 20 September that Speaker Qalibaf has not yet scheduled. Tehran treats treaty membership as leverage still on the table, not yet spent.

Russia and China

Moscow and Beijing vetoed the Panel of Experts' renewal, maintaining Resolution 2231 lapsed in October 2025 and the 2025 snapback was never validly triggered, so the sanctions architecture the Panel enforces has no current legal standing. Both governments frame the veto as upholding law, not shielding Tehran.