21SEP

Baghdad sacks two Maysan chiefs over the launches

2 min read

15:34UTC

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan Operations Commander and the provincial police chief on Saturday 12 September and ordered a special investigative council, after investigators traced the drones to a launch site in the province.

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ConflictDeveloping

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan Operations Commander and the Maysan provincial police chief on Saturday 12 September 2026 and ordered a special investigative council, after Iraqi authorities traced the drones that hit the Saudi pipeline to a launch site in the province⁠¹. Maysan sits on the Iranian border in southern Iraq. An umbrella group of Iran-backed militias in Iraq denied any involvement⁠².

Al-Zaidi is the prime minister The New York Times reported carrying a US ceasefire proposal to Tehran in July, which makes the dismissals a move by a government with a working channel to Iran rather than one without options. Sacking a provincial commander is the fastest instrument a prime minister holds. It requires no warrant, no charge and no parliamentary vote, and it produces a name on the same day the accusation lands.

The dismissals produce no launch group. The two officers removed are the men responsible for the ground the drones flew from, not the men who flew them, and the investigative council is the body that would have to close that gap. Until it does, Baghdad has answered an attack on a neighbour's oil infrastructure by punishing its own chain of command.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Drones that hit a Saudi oil pipeline on 10 September were tracked back to a launch site inside Iraq, in a province called Maysan on the Iranian border. Iraq's prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, responded by sacking the two men in charge of security there: the army officer who runs operations in the province and the provincial police chief. He also set up a special council to investigate. Sacking the local commanders does not catch whoever launched the drones. It removes the people who were supposed to be watching the ground, and the investigation into who actually fired is still open.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Maysan runs along the Iranian border, and armed groups aligned with Tehran operate there alongside the Iraqi state's own forces. Riyadh published an assessment on 6 August naming energy facilities, ports and airports as the targets of an Iraqi militia and Houthi campaign coordinated under Revolutionary Guard guidance.

A prime minister has fast instruments and slow ones. Dismissal needs no warrant, no charge and no vote, and it produces a name on the day the accusation lands. Prosecution needs evidence, custody and a court, and Baghdad has none of the three yet.

Riyadh supplies the pressure. Saudi Arabia has tied its own restraint to Baghdad stopping further launches, so Iraq's answer has to be visible to Riyadh within days rather than correct within months.

Escalation

Down in the short term and unresolved beyond it. The dismissals buy Baghdad time with Riyadh; the investigative council's first published finding, or the absence of one, is what decides whether that holds.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Baghdad has accepted in public that the attack on a neighbour's oil infrastructure was mounted from Iraqi soil, which is the finding every later argument now starts from.
Immediate · Reported
Risk
If the investigative council reports without naming a launch group, the dismissals become the whole of Iraq's answer to Riyadh.
Short term · Assessed
Precedent
Two provincial security posts are now the price of a launch from Iraqi territory, which gives future Iraqi commanders a reason to search their own ground harder.
Medium term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

Primary parallel: After the 14 September 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq plant, Baghdad publicly denied that Iraqi territory had been used to launch it, and no Iraqi commander lost his post. This time the government accepted the launch geography within two days and sacked the province's two senior security officers.

Counter-parallel: No positive parallel exists for the dismissals themselves. Removing a provincial commander answers for the ground the drones flew from rather than for the people who flew them, and the special investigative council ordered on the same day has published nothing.

Consensus view: Iraq's own government, through the Iraqi News Agency, says the drones launched from Maysan province and has removed the two officers who held the security file there.

Counter-view: Tehran's answer to the same finding was not to accept it but to ask for a joint Iraq-Iran examination of the launch platforms, which Baghdad granted the same day.

Key tension: Whether a provincial command chain can be held to account for launches the Iraqi state says it never authorised, when the groups capable of mounting them sit outside that chain.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Ali al-Zaidi →Maysan →Iraq →Petroline →Saudi Arabia →Al Jazeera →New York →Iran →Baghdad →Tehran →New York Times →

First Reported In

Update #178 · Saudi bypass hit, and Riyadh holds fire

Al Jazeera· 13 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Drones hit the pipeline built to dodge Hormuz

Baghdad sacked two Maysan security chiefs after the launches were traced to the province.

Occurred 10 Sept 2026

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This Event

Baghdad sacks two Maysan chiefs over the launches

Iraq removed two of its own commanders after tracing the drones that hit a Saudi pipeline to Iraqi territory.

Led to

Al-Zaidi gives Tehran a seat at the inquiry

The joint Iraq-Iran inquiry followed the dismissals and the Iranian request.

Occurred 12 Sept 2026

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Different Perspectives

Office for Budget Responsibility

The OBR's 28 October forecast assumed $82 oil for 2026 and 2027, from market prices for the ten working days to 19 August, and blamed dearer wholesale energy on the war without naming Iran. It expects CPI inflation close to 4% in early 2027 even at that price.

Hengaw, Kurdish rights group

Hengaw reported the 3 November hangings of Amirhossein Maleki and Amirhossein Ebrahimi in Isfahan, saying Ebrahimi was tortured into confessing and that nine of 12 people sentenced to death in the case have now been hanged. Iran's judiciary holds that the defendants killed members of the security forces.

FINTRAC, Canada's financial intelligence unit

FINTRAC worked with the US Treasury on the 6 November designation of eight money services businesses in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Treasury says the businesses still operate, some under new names, so closing them falls to Ottawa.

Abdul Qadir al-Dakhil, Governor of Nineveh

Al-Dakhil cancelled three Mosul International Airport contracts on 7 November over alleged links to armed groups, after meeting Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad. He named no group or company, and said the contracts will go to international companies.

Kuwait

Kuwait condemned the Houthi missile fired towards the Madinah region on 5 November and restated its support for Saudi Arabia, the Qatar News Agency reported. Its state tanker company, Kuwait Oil Tankers Company, is among the Gulf state fleets on Iran's expanded Hormuz list.

Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

Treasury designated an alleged Chandigarh false-flag network on 4 November and eight Canadian exchangers on 6 November, while State sanctioned alleged MANPADS intermediaries. None of the actions touches an oil buyer; they target the paper, cash and procurement around Iran's trade.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.