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Iran Conflict 2026
17AUG

Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

2 min read
15:37UTC

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since May, and traders tied the jump straight to the tanker strikes in the Bab al-Mandab.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent cleared $100 because the southern reroute closed, not because the strikes on Iran grew heavier.

Brent Crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since 26 May, rising about 6.7% to roughly $100.37 by 1401 GMT, with traders tying the move directly to the previous day's tanker strikes 1. The benchmark had closed at $92.09 only a day earlier , the top of a slow four-session climb.

Brent is the international price for seaborne crude, the benchmark behind roughly two-thirds of the world's traded oil, and it carries structural exposure to shipping chokepoints that inland grades do not. For a fortnight it had shrugged off vertical escalation, more nights and a rising toll, because the barrels kept moving through the dark fleet and the Omani-shore reroute south of Hormuz, which kept cargoes reaching buyers even as the northern strait was contested.

A strike in the Bab al-Mandab removes that release valve, so the market is now pricing two contested chokepoints at once rather than one. One caution belongs on the print. Oil has spiked and faded before in this war, clearing $87 on the July blockade before sliding as cargoes found a way round. The second tanker, the Layla, remains an unconfirmed Houthi claim, and a single denied strike could take the premium out as quickly as it went in.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main international price used to set oil costs around the world. On 23 July it went above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, jumping sharply in a single day. Traders say the jump is a direct reaction to the tanker strikes: when ships carrying oil through dangerous waters become targets themselves, the oil gets more expensive because it costs more to ship and insure. This matters at the petrol pump and in home energy bills. Oil prices this high, if they hold, tend to filter through to what people pay to fill a car or heat a home within weeks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Brent's structural exposure to chokepoint risk is built into the benchmark itself: it prices seaborne North Sea and Gulf cargoes, unlike West Texas Intermediate, which moves overwhelmingly by pipeline and reacts far less to Gulf shipping risk.

The move above $100 also compounds a climb that was already under way before the Encelia strike, so the jump builds on an existing tightening rather than starting from a calm baseline.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Sustained Brent prices above $100 typically reach UK and European pump prices within two to four weeks, given normal refining and distribution lags.

  • Risk

    If insurers keep pricing Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz as active war zones, the premium embedded in Brent may not unwind quickly even if strikes pause, unlike the rapid snapback seen after Abqaiq in 2019.

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Reuters· 23 Jul 2026
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Different Perspectives
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Kpler counted five Hormuz transits on 16 August against 31 the previous weekend, while Windward logged four vessels going AIS-dark for up to a month; underwriters price both the attacks and a sanctions register that names their counterparties in unreadable scanned images. Two trackers now measure only the ships that consent to be seen.
China
China
China sits at the end of the payment chain the 14 August designation targets: Iran's shadow banking network exists to convert sanctioned oil sales, much of it to Chinese refiners, into usable funds. Beijing has previously refused to recognise OFAC's jurisdiction over its own entities buying Iranian crude, leaving this designation to test compliance rather than change trade.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar's foreign ministry denied on 16 August holding any Iranian pilots alive, contradicting Iranian General Mohammad Bagherzadeh's claim that Doha holds three Su-24 aircrew, and said it had recovered only one set of remains. Qatar carries Iran's messages to Washington, and this is a public break with Tehran over a fact only one aircrew inquiry can settle.
Oman
Oman
Oman's shipping-map talks, covering monitoring, environment and maritime services, were publicly decoupled from any Hormuz reopening by Iran's own foreign minister on 17 August. Muscat's mediation channel keeps functioning on the narrow file it was given, while the political decision it hoped to unlock stays with Iran's security council.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia separately called the recurrence of tanker attacks on Emirati shipping a dangerous escalation, breaking from the UAE's repeated formula. Riyadh speaking in its own name over an attack on another state's vessels signals it reads the pattern differently from Abu Dhabi's flat statements.
United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates
The UAE foreign ministry condemned a third ADNOC-linked tanker attack on 15 August in language identical, word for word, to its statement the day before. Three consecutive strikes on Emirati shipping have not moved Abu Dhabi's public wording by a single adjective.