The US Treasury lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already loaded on tankers worldwide, granting a 30-day waiver through 19 April. The volume — enough to cover roughly 1.5 days of global consumption — enters a market where the daily supply shortfall from the Hormuz closure runs into the millions of barrels.
The waiver is the administration's third emergency supply-side intervention in three weeks. On 15 March, Trump issued a 30-day waiver on Russian oil sanctions — a move six of seven G7 members opposed, and that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy estimated could deliver Russia $10 billion in revenue . On 18 March, Treasury authorised Venezuela's PDVSA to sell crude on global markets and Trump suspended the Jones Act's US-flagged vessel requirement for 60 days . Each measure has been larger and more politically costly than the last. None addresses the underlying supply disruption: the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with more than 300 ships stranded.
The policy is internally contradictory. Washington has struck more than 7,000 targets in Iran since 28 February while simultaneously releasing Iranian crude to prevent the domestic price shock that campaign has produced. Treasury Secretary Bessent had already acknowledged the administration was allowing Iranian tankers through Hormuz to "supply the rest of the world" . The waiver formalises that trade-off: degrading Iran's military capacity and maintaining affordable energy are competing objectives, and the administration has chosen to pursue both at once. The 19 April expiry creates a decision point near the IDF's disclosed Passover operational planning horizon , after which renewal becomes another variable in an already crowded political calculus.
At 140 million barrels, the waiver sounds substantial in isolation. Against daily global consumption of roughly 100 million barrels, it provides about 36 hours of supply. Gulf oil exports have dropped at least 60% since late February . Iraq has declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated fields. Qatar has lost 17% of its LNG export capacity for an estimated three to five years . Goldman Sachs, Wood Mackenzie, and Vanda Insights have each forecast oil above $150 if the disruption persists . The waiver buys days, not weeks, and the supply deficit it attempts to fill is widening faster than emergency measures can close it.
