Regulation (EU) 2026/261 takes effect on 17 June for short-term pipeline contracts, those concluded before 17 June 2025 1. Regulation 2026/261 is the EU instrument phasing out Russian pipeline gas under the RePowerEU framework. Long-term contracts are exempt under its transitional provisions until 30 September 2027, which leaves the structural Russian flow into Central Europe legally intact for fifteen months past the headline date. The ban step-down was already flagged to bind with long-term TurkStream carved out ; the regulation's detail confirms how little physical gas the deadline actually stops.
Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/335, adopted 9 February, exempts six origins from the prior-authorisation requirement: Algeria, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the UK and the USA 2. Prior authorisation is the mechanism a short-term importer uses to bring in non-exempt gas: it files one month before customs entry and clears an administrative check, a bureaucratic delay rather than a hard stop. Hungary's MVM, the state energy group, holds a 3.5 bcm long-term TurkStream contract fully exempt to September 2027.
The market priced this architecture days before the deadline. The CEGH-TTF basis had compressed to €0.41/MWh by 11 June , reading the ban as procedural rather than disruptive. CEGH is the Austrian virtual hub at the eastern end of the TurkStream route, the basis most exposed to any genuine physical step-down. A near-flat basis going into the binding week is the traded confirmation that desks expect the molecules to keep moving. TurkStream carries roughly 15 bcm a year to Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria, and none of that long-term volume is touched on 17 June.
