17JUN

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandeb

2 min read

09:37UTC

A senior Houthi official described closing the Red Sea strait as one stage in a deliberate escalation ladder.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Dual-chokepoint pressure is now an active threat, not a theoretical scenario.

Mohammed Mansour, Houthi deputy information minister, told reporters: "We are conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options." ¹ Roughly 30% of Israeli imports and 6-7 million barrels per day of oil, approximately 7% of global supply, pass through the strait.

Mansour's language mirrors Iranian diplomatic formulations around Hormuz in the war's first week. The framing is a staged escalation ladder, not a single decision. Yahya Saree announced three formal red lines before the missile attack: US and Israeli use of the Red Sea for strikes, growing third-country participation, and escalating attacks on the "Axis of Resistance."

The IEA stated explicitly that its 400 million barrel emergency release "cannot substitute for the transit route itself" . Iran's Hormuz traffic control already routes vessels through a narrow corridor past Larak Island under IRGC escort; the Majlis toll bill would codify that system into domestic law. If both chokepoints tighten further, no reserve release addresses the shortfall.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow sea passage between Yemen and East Africa. Almost all the oil and cargo that moves between Asia and Europe passes through it. Around 6-7 million barrels of oil cross every day. A senior Houthi official said on 28 March that closing this strait is one of their options as the war continues. They already have missiles and drones on Yemen's coastline. Iran already controls the other major oil route, the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis block Bab al-Mandeb as well, there would be no alternative route for most of the world's oil. Emergency reserves would run out in weeks; there is no spare capacity to replace both routes at once.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The structural driver is the Houthis' geographic positioning. Yemen's Tihama coast overlooks Bab al-Mandeb's 29-kilometre narrows. Anti-ship missiles already deployed there can reach any vessel in the strait. Unlike Hormuz, there is no second passage: cargo cannot route around Bab al-Mandeb without circumnavigating Africa, adding 6,000 nautical miles and roughly 20 days per voyage.

The Houthis' leverage exists regardless of Iranian direction because the geography is permanent. Tehran did not create this chokepoint; it merely held the group back from using it.

What could happen next?

Risk
Dual chokepoint closure would exceed IEA emergency reserve capacity; no government has a contingency plan for simultaneous Hormuz restriction and Bab al-Mandeb closure.
Consequence
Any ceasefire negotiation must now include Houthi participation or Bab al-Mandeb remains at risk regardless of what Iran agrees.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from United States

United States

Primary parallel: Egypt's closure of the strait of Tiran in May 1967, which Israel treated as a casus belli. A chokepoint threat without an accompanying deal triggered a pre-emptive war. The current context differs in that the US Navy has far greater strike range than Israel did in 1967, but the coercive logic is the same.

Counter-parallel: The 2023-24 Houthi Red Sea campaign, when the group closed Bab al-Mandeb to Israeli-linked shipping but exempted most commercial traffic. That precedent suggests they can calibrate closure selectively, which makes a full closure a ladder rung rather than an all-or-nothing decision.

An immediate closure would add an estimated $15-20 per barrel to Brent Crude within 48 hours, based on freight-rate responses during the 2023-24 Houthi disruption. At $112 plus $20, Brent would exceed the $130 threshold Oxford Economics links to sustained demand destruction in import-dependent economies.

Structurally, the Asia-Europe container trade bears the greater long-term cost. Circumnavigation adds 20 days and roughly $2 million in fuel per large vessel. That produces a persistent 8-12% container cost increase, feeding into EU and UK retail prices within two to three months.

Consensus view: Windward and Lloyd's List analysts assess the threat as calibrated coercive signalling. A closure declaration forfeits the leverage the threat provides; the Houthis will not close unless they judge the war is already lost.

Counter-view: Chatham House Gulf analysts argue the Houthis' domestic political audience rewards maximalist action. If Iranian-sponsored talks collapse permanently, Ansarallah faces internal pressure to escalate regardless of strategic calculation.

Key tension: Whether the Houthis will accept a ceasefire that does not explicitly include them, or whether their entry creates a veto over any deal.

Sources:Axios

Mentions:Israel →Pakistan →Majlis →Iran →Windward →Yahya Saree →Strait of Hormuz →Bab al-Mandeb →Mohammed Mansour →Larak-Qeshm →

First Reported In

Update #50 · Houthis join; Iran holds two chokepoints

Axios· 28 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Iran rejects US plan, sets five terms

Iran's rejection of US ceasefire terms and demand for Hormuz sovereignty set the strategic context for activating the Houthi dual-chokepoint threat.

Occurred 25 Mar 2026

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This Event

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandeb

If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb while Iran controls Hormuz, the IEA's emergency reserves cannot compensate for the combined disruption.

Led to

GPS blacked out across Gulf chokepoints

The GNSS denial zone extending to Bab al-Mandeb is the electronic precursor to the physical closure threatened by Houthi minister Mansour.

Occurred 29 Mar 2026

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Different Perspectives

Lloyd's Market Association

War-risk underwriters price the Houthis' Red Sea attacks because the group announces its targets in advance, but the unclaimed Damietta drone gives insurers a hit with no author to price against. An attack nobody claims costs shipping more than one that is claimed, since premiums are set against a known pattern, not raw damage.

US Central Command

CENTCOM has announced no strike on Iran since resuming bombing on 30 July within hours of an IRGC salvo on Jordan, and centcom.mil did not respond to requests to confirm any pause. The command has gone quiet before while a larger operation was being weighed, so silence alone proves nothing about what it has or has not done.

Hengaw

Hengaw recorded at least 67 executions in Iran during July, of which the state acknowledged only eight, and reported the 1 August execution of protest detainee Arvin Kheirkhahan at Shahrud with no advance notice to his family. A family's first notice of a death sentence is now usually the instruction to collect a body.

Egypt

Egypt's government asked media on 2 August to report the Damietta attack accurately, named no author, and said no findings will be published before its own investigation concludes. Cairo holds the debris and jurisdiction over an attack on its own soil, and naming a culprit now would pull it into a dispute it has avoided for five months.

Iran's Foreign Ministry

Araghchi called the Hormuz talks with Oman final-stage on 2 August, four days after his own deputy rejected Oman's lane proposal, and denied the Damietta drone strike as an Israeli false flag while two Iranian officials privately claimed it for Tehran. Iran's public position now contradicts itself on both files at once.

Bahrain and Kuwait

Bahraini and Kuwaiti aircraft flew their own strikes on Iranian depots in July with Emirati air cover behind them, and Ynetnews reports some Gulf capitals wanted the 2 August strike to proceed rather than stop. States that have already taken fire see a closing window on Iranian weakness, not a reason to pause.