Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has fallen 80% below normal levels, a further deterioration from the 70% decline recorded on 1 March. The acceleration — ten percentage points in 24 hours — reflects the cumulative effect of shipping line withdrawals, P&I insurance cancellations, and Iran's demonstrated willingness to strike commercial vessels.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day transited Hormuz before the conflict — approximately one-fifth of global consumption. At 80% reduction, roughly 16 million barrels per day of transit capacity has been removed from the market. OPEC+'s emergency 220,000-barrel-per-day production increase replaces 1.3% of the lost throughput. CMA CGM's emergency surcharges of $2,000–$4,000 per container and the all-time record VLCC freight rates are consequences of this contraction, not its cause — the chokepoint itself is closing.
Three tankers were attacked near the strait on 28 February — the MV Skylight, MKD Vyom, and Sea La Donna . An Indian mariner was killed on 1 March when a surface drone detonated against the MKD Vyom's hull 52 nautical miles northwest of Muscat — the first Indian national to die in the conflict. The remaining 20% of traffic likely consists of vessels already in transit when conditions deteriorated, ships flagged to non-belligerent states, or tankers operating under government rather than commercial insurance. Iran has now degraded all three pillars of The Gulf's energy export architecture — production at Ras Laffan, refining at Ras Tanura, transit through Hormuz. The trajectory is toward near-total closure.
