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Iran Conflict 2026
16JUN

Saudi crude abandons its Red Sea route

2 min read
10:20UTC

Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude through Bab el-Mandeb since the 23 July Houthi embargo, and 1.06 million barrels a day have poured into the Suez Canal instead.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Saudi crude did not stop; it took the long way round through Suez at 106% higher canal traffic.

Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude for export through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, since the Houthis declared an embargo on 23 July. The diverted volume has poured north into the Suez Canal, where crude traffic climbed 106% in a single week to 1.06 million barrels a day, on Kpler cargo tracking reported by AFP and carried on the AP and Reuters wires⁠1⁠2.

The Houthis are the armed movement that controls north-west Yemen and the eastern shore of the strait. Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gate for any Gulf cargo heading west toward Suez and the Mediterranean, so shutting it to Saudi loadings does not remove the barrels from the market; it reroutes them. Every cargo that once cleared the strait quickly now takes the long way round, and the arbitrage against Asian buyers resets with it.

To a spreads desk the position sits not in the flat price but in the physical shift. The reroute concentrates tonnage demand on the Yanbu-Suez leg, pulls crude north through a single contested corridor, and leaves the direction of Brent to swing on diplomatic headlines while the routing cost accrues on every barrel. Where that cost sits, and why the freight screens most desks read cannot see it, is the trade this week.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Saudi Arabia normally ships crude oil out of Red Sea ports two ways: south through the Bab el-Mandeb strait near Yemen, or north through the Suez Canal towards Europe. When Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a blockade of the southern route on 23 July, tankers stopped using it completely, and traffic through Suez jumped 106% in a week to 1.06 million barrels a day. This matters because there is no easy third route; oil has to go one way or the other.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Saudi Red Sea crude has no third export corridor. Yanbu and Jeddah loadings must transit either Bab el-Mandeb south or the Suez/SUMED corridor north; a full Cape of Good Hope diversion adds roughly three weeks and was not attempted even during the 2024 Houthi campaign's worst weeks.

The binary nature of the route choice, rather than the Houthi threat itself, explains why the shift from partial bypass to total abandonment happened within days of the 23 July declaration instead of the gradual reallocation seen after the March peak documented by Wood Mackenzie.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Suez Canal transit capacity, untested at this volume since March, becomes the binding constraint on Saudi Red Sea export flow rather than the Houthi blockade itself.

  • Risk

    A second chokepoint incident on the Suez/SUMED corridor would leave Saudi Red Sea crude with only the multi-week Cape of Good Hope diversion as a fallback.

First Reported In

Update #20 · Saudi crude reroutes to Suez, freight bites

The National· 27 Jul 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)
The JMIC, the US-led naval reporting cell, rated the Hormuz threat "severe" in its 25 October advisory, as reported by gCaptain, and warned of possible renewed mining. Eight days earlier it found no substantiation for the Guards' mine claims, while US-facilitated transits ran at about 34 a day.
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)
The CPS charged two men under the National Security Act 2023 over the RAF Fairford incident, and Counter Terrorism Policing said it believes the foreign intelligence service involved is Iran's, LBC reported. The case now runs through the courts; both men are charged, not convicted.
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
Aden and Yemen's recognised government
The Houthis told people to leave Aden airport, in the government-held south, before a missile fell there on 28 October, AFP reported, and police reported a second attack that afternoon. The fight between Riyadh and the Houthis is landing on the south's main civilian airport.
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar (mediators)
Qatar-led mediators put new terms to Iran this week, which an Iranian official called "ideas, not a proposal". Riyadh framed the Tehran meeting as support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation, keeping Doha at the centre of the indirect channel.
Korea Shipowners' Association
Korea Shipowners' Association
The association said the ships Iran listed were sub-chartered to an overseas oil company, not owned by Sinokor, carried no South Korean crew, and that Sinokor was unaware of the warning. South Korea's shipowners are contesting whose vessels the notice covers before it takes effect.
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait (foreign ministry)
Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador, Mohammad Toutounji, and handed him a protest note over the embassy's denial that its citizen took part in the alleged plot against Interior Minister Fahad Al-Yousef. Kuwait is answering through its courts and a diplomatic protest, citing international law and the UN Charter.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.