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Iran Conflict 2026
4JUN

Hormuz toll system carried 20 transits per day before ceasefire

1 min read
11:25UTC

Eleven flag states had paid the toll to transit by 5 April; the ceasefire ratifies the operating model.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

The toll system Iran built was already running before the ceasefire; the ceasefire just labelled it.

The 20 daily transits across 11 flag states are the operational reality the ceasefire's 'coordinated passage' clause now ratifies. Iran's permanent customs authority over the strait, legislated in late March , turned out to be the architecture both sides have now signed onto.

The recovery from near-zero transits in late March to 20/day by 5 April happened through individual bilateral toll deals, not through any US enforcement action. Trump's Truth Social formulation that the US 'will be helping with the traffic buildup in the strait of Hormuz' aligns the rhetoric with the operating reality.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Eleven countries had already been paying Iran for permission to send ships through the Strait of Hormuz before the ceasefire was signed. Twenty ships went through per day on 5 April, compared to about 138 a day before the war. The deal Trump just signed says Iran will keep doing exactly this for two weeks.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    The toll system is operating practice and now codified in the ceasefire.

First Reported In

Update #62 · Two victories, two different lists

Seatrade Maritime· 8 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Israel
Israel
IDF Chief Eyal Zamir declared on 3 June there was no ceasefire for his forces, and strikes killed at least 10 civilians and one Israeli soldier on 4 June. The IDF killed Hezbollah's chief engineer and warned three south Lebanon villages to evacuate on 5 June, advancing into ground the unsigned Washington framework has not caught.
Hezbollah / Lebanon
Hezbollah / Lebanon
Naim Qassem rejected the Washington Lebanon framework on 4 June as "absurd, humiliating and insulting", blocking a ceasefire instrument that required Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani before any Israeli withdrawal. Over one million Lebanese remain displaced; the framework's collapse prolongs that toll.
Iran
Iran
Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly coupled the Lebanon ceasefire to the Iran-US nuclear track on 4 June, carrying IRGC authority rather than his own civilian mandate. The IRGC delegation has sent no HEU counter-proposal since Araghchi confirmed no progress that same day; Mojtaba Khamenei's 21 May order to keep the 440.9 kg stockpile inside Iran remains operative.
United States
United States
Rubio placed the Iran-US deal at 95 per cent complete on 4 June while the administration signed no Iran instrument and OFAC designated only Cuban targets. Trump separately disclosed and rejected an airlift plan to collect Iran's HEU stockpile, claiming the material is "entombed", a claim the IAEA cannot verify.
China
China
Beijing's MOFCOM Blocking Rules constrain OFAC enforcement on the mainland; China has not corroborated Trump's verbal account of any bilateral summit, and the rial's failure to hold its Rubio bounce, combined with the IRGC's stablecoin rail closure, increases Chinese yuan-denominated oil-payment exposure through Hormuz.
Bahrain
Bahrain
The IRGC struck Bahrain on 3 June as its sirens sounded and its PAC-3 magazine neared exhaustion; excluded from Rubio's 2 May emergency resupply, Bahrain received a 50-round Federal Register notice on 1 June on an 18-month delivery timeline, meaning it is defending the US Fifth Fleet headquarters on the last rounds it has.