Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Iran Conflict 2026
2JUN

Two dead in Ramat Gan; 61st IRGC wave

4 min read
09:04UTC

An elderly couple — one unable to reach shelter due to a disability — were killed as the IRGC fired its broadest weapon mix yet at central Israel, shutting Tel Aviv's main rail hub.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Multi-warhead missiles targeting civilian infrastructure mark Iran's qualitative escalation toward punishment-based deterrence.

The IRGC launched the 61st wave of Operation True Promise 4 hours after Larijani's death, deploying Khorramshahr-4 and Qadr multiple-warhead missiles alongside Emad and Kheibar Shekan single-warhead projectiles 1. The weapon mix was broader than any previous wave. The cluster munitions that first penetrated Israeli defences the previous week tested area saturation; multiple-warhead missiles test a different failure mode — warheads that separate during terminal descent and multiply the number of incoming objects Israeli interceptors must engage.

A couple in their 70s were killed in Ramat Gan 2. One had a disability that prevented them from reaching shelter. Four others sustained light injuries. Israel's cumulative civilian death toll reached 17, up from 15 as of 14 March . Damage at Tel Aviv's Savidor Central station — the busiest interchange in Israel's rail network — forced suspension of services. Fires broke out in Petah Tikvah and Kafr Qasim.

The mixed salvo creates a layered problem for Israeli air defence. Arrow 3 must engage ballistic threats at the highest altitudes; Arrow 2 handles medium-range intercepts; David's Sling and Iron Dome must cope with whatever penetrates — including separated warheads that arrive as multiple distinct targets. Israel's cabinet approved NIS 2.6 billion (~$826 million) in emergency interceptor procurement days earlier , an outlay that reflects the burn rate: Arrow and David's Sling interceptors cost $2–3 million each, and Iran fired seven salvos in a single night the previous week . Semafor reported the IDF was running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors — a claim the IDF denied.

The IRGC claimed it struck "over 100 military and security targets" in the Tel Aviv area — unverifiable. The verifiable pattern is that each major Israeli strike against a senior Iranian official has produced a named retaliatory operation, and each successive wave has introduced a weapon type or combination not previously deployed. An IRGC spokesman stated days earlier that most missiles fired so far were produced "a decade ago" and that weapons manufactured since the war began remain unused . If accurate, the Khorramshahr-4 and Qadr warheads in the 61st wave are drawn from Iran's older inventory. Its newer arsenal has not yet been committed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran has been firing missiles at Israel throughout this conflict, but this wave used its more sophisticated weapons — missiles that split into multiple warheads in flight, making them harder to shoot down and able to hit several points at once. The train station hit in Tel Aviv is the main hub of Israel's national rail network; shutting it down affects hundreds of thousands of daily journeys and the movement of goods. The elderly couple killed could not reach a shelter because of a disability — a detail that reveals a gap in Israel's civil defence system, which was designed assuming people can move quickly. Critically, Iran is numbering and naming each wave publicly, which is itself a strategic communication: it tells Israelis and the world that Iran can sustain this indefinitely.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The disability of one of the killed victims — preventing shelter access — exposes a structural gap in Israeli civil defence: Home Front Command's shelter system was designed for able-bodied populations and has not been systematically adapted for mobility-impaired residents. Iran's shift to multi-warhead missiles multiplies simultaneous impact points, disproportionately affecting those who cannot rapidly relocate. This is not an Iranian targeting policy but an emergent civil defence vulnerability that will compound as the weapon mix improves.

Root Causes

Iran's publicly numbered retaliatory doctrine serves internal legitimacy needs: the IRGC must demonstrate institutional accountability for each Israeli strike on its leadership to maintain domestic credibility. The sequential numbering prevents any Israeli operation from being framed as a decisive, unanswered blow, regardless of actual damage inflicted.

Escalation

Iran escalated weapon quality — from cluster munitions (previous wave) to multi-warhead ballistic missiles — in direct response to the Larijani killing. This ratchet pattern, where each Israeli strike on a senior figure prompts an Iranian qualitative upgrade rather than a fixed retaliatory level, suggests Iran may deploy its most capable systems (including Fattah hypersonic variants) if further high-profile Israeli strikes occur.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Multi-warhead deployment signals Iran is expending premium inventory per retaliatory wave, potentially accelerating Israeli interest in ending the conflict before Iran exhausts and reconstitutes.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Sustained civilian infrastructure targeting — rail, power, airports — could trigger Israeli retaliation against Iranian civilian infrastructure in kind, crossing a threshold neither side has yet reached.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    Publicly numbered retaliatory operations (True Promise 1–61 and beyond) establish an Iranian doctrine of named institutional accountability for each Israeli strike on senior figures.

    Long term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Iran's ratchet pattern of qualitative weapon upgrades in response to each Israeli senior-figure killing could lead to deployment of hypersonic variants within weeks if further high-profile strikes occur.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #40 · Larijani dead; Israel hunts the new leader

Times of Israel· 18 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Two dead in Ramat Gan; 61st IRGC wave
The 61st wave demonstrates Iran's continued capacity to reach central Israel with a diversified missile arsenal despite eighteen days of degradation strikes, using a multiple-warhead and single-warhead combination that tests Israeli layered air defences against simultaneous failure modes.
Different Perspectives
Hengaw and Iranian protest detainees
Hengaw and Iranian protest detainees
Hengaw documented three secret executions of protest-linked detainees at Isfahan and Karaj on 15 and 16 July, including Mohammad Amini Dehaghani, hanged over a January arson charge with no public trial record. Tehran is carrying out capital punishment against 2026 protesters while global attention stays fixed on the war with the US.
Russia
Russia
OFAC named Moscow aviation firm Avratek OOO and its principals Mariya Selina and Vadim Druzhbin directly for the first time in this war's Iran arms track, under an Executive Order 13382 designation issued 15 July. The designation converts years of rhetorical claims about Russian arms supply to Iran into named, sanctionable individuals and a documented company.
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens during Iran's 14 July Gulf-wide barrage and was struck again in the 16 July Artesh claim against Sheikh Isa air base, home to the US Fifth Fleet. Manama's air-defence stocks were already reported near-exhausted before this second strike claim against the same base in a week.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait's armed forces intercepted the drones Iran's Army claimed against Ali Al Salem air base on 16 July and separately reported intercepting missiles and drones in Iran's Gulf-wide barrage on 14 July. Kuwait now absorbs strikes from two rival Iranian commands while hosting Camp Arifjan, the US logistics base Iran also claims to have destroyed.
Iran (Artesh and IRGC)
Iran (Artesh and IRGC)
Iran's regular Army claimed the 16 July drone strikes on Kuwait's Ali Al Salem and Bahrain's Sheikh Isa air bases under its own banner, Operation Saeqeh phase ten, while the IRGC separately claimed a mine strike closing Hormuz on 18 July. Two Iranian institutions are now claiming parallel operations, with neither claim confirmed by Kuwait, Bahrain or CENTCOM.
United States
United States
CENTCOM bombed the interior cities of Ahvaz and Yazd for the first time overnight into 17 July, Marines began boarding vessels including the tanker Wen Yao, and Treasury let General License X1 lapse at 12:01am the same day. Washington closed every remaining channel for de-escalation without a new executive action, a posture of attrition rather than a wind-down.