Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
29MAY

Tehran says ball is in America's court

3 min read
08:47UTC

Iran says it holds an initial draft accord relayed via Pakistan and is waiting on the United States' final counter-text, inverting the Western framing of who is holding up the deal.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Tehran says it holds the draft and is waiting on Washington, reversing the question of who is stalling the deal.

Iran has obtained an initial draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) through Pakistani mediation and is awaiting the United States' finalised counter-text, according to a strategic analyst who told the Iranian state-linked network SNN that "the ball is now in America's court" 1. Islamabad has shuttled messages between the two capitals for weeks, and Tehran's account places the unanswered move on Washington's side of the table.

The framing inverts the Western narrative. In Trump's telling, the deal was "largely negotiated" and awaiting Iranian follow-through ; in Tehran's, the draft is already in Iran's hands and the United States is the one yet to respond. Both cannot be the waiting party. The contest over who is stalling is not cosmetic, because each government answers to a domestic audience that punishes the side seen to be conceding and rewards the side seen to be holding firm.

The procedural record gives Tehran's version some support. Trump's own condition, posted on 24 May, is that the naval blockade stays in place until any agreement is certified and signed , which rules out a partial or verbal text. If Washington will only lift the blockade on a fully signed instrument, then the next move genuinely does sit with the party that has to draft, certify and sign that paper.

The inversion is a deliberate piece of narrative positioning, amplified through a state-linked outlet, and it works precisely because the underlying facts are ambiguous enough to support more than one reading. With no published text from either side, the public account of who holds the draft is itself a negotiating instrument, and Tehran has chosen to wield it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as a go-between for the US and Iran throughout this conflict. Iran says Pakistan delivered an initial draft of the peace agreement (the memorandum of understanding) to Tehran, and now Iran is waiting for the United States to send back its version with any changes. This flips who looks like they are holding things up. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had promised "good news in hours" on a deal; that timeline had slipped to "a couple of days". Meanwhile, an analyst speaking on Iranian state TV said the ball is now in America's court. This is about managing public perception as much as actual negotiating. Iran wants to be seen as cooperative and waiting, with Washington as the slow party. Whether the US has actually received a specific text to respond to, or whether this is Iran's framing of a more fluid situation, is not confirmed from outside sources.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's army-chief channel emerged because the civilian tracks, Araghchi's foreign ministry, Vance's Islamabad visit (cancelled after Iran walked back), and the Doha session, all stalled on the same nuclear sequencing problem.

The Pakistani military has institutional access to both Iran's IRGC command (where nuclear decisions actually live) and to the US national security apparatus (via CENTCOM interoperability). No civilian diplomatic track has that dual access. The result is that the deal's most sensitive concessions travel through a channel that bypasses elected governments on both sides.

Trump's "blockade holds until certified and signed" condition creates the specific procedural problem Iran is now exploiting: if the US insists on a signed final instrument before lifting the blockade, Tehran can frame every day of blockade continuation as American delay, even as the MOU draft sits unresponded-to in Washington's inbox.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Iran's procedural-inversion framing on 26 May shifts domestic and international optics: any further delay in signing can now be attributed to US procrastination rather than Iranian resistance.

  • Consequence

    Pakistan's army-chief channel becoming the primary MOU conduit means Islamabad's general-officer corps has structural authority over the deal's final text, an institutional outcome that changes Pakistan's regional leverage regardless of whether the deal is signed.

First Reported In

Update #108 · US strikes Bandar Abbas as deal talk stalls

CBS News· 26 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets that Tehran named as the precondition for any Hormuz reopening sequence; with Oman sidelined and no agreed HEU custodian, the asset-routing architecture that any deal requires has no operational channel and no neutral financial intermediary to run it through.
Hengaw and Iranian civilian population
Hengaw and Iranian civilian population
Iranians face an internet capped at 40 per cent by hardware their president cannot dismantle, field killings that leave no court record, and judicial executions running in parallel; Hengaw, based in Norway, is the primary remaining monitor of a repression system the IRGC is deliberately moving beyond auditable records. The real toll is higher than any single monitor's count.
China
China
China supplied deep-packet-inspection hardware that caps Iran's internet at 40 per cent and enables an instant on-demand blackout, and was barred by Trump as a potential HEU custodian on 27 May. Beijing gains from Iran's continued non-alignment with the West while the DPI sale extends Chinese surveillance-technology exports as a geopolitical instrument.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Rubio in Washington on 29 May, formally inheriting the role of sole active mediator after Oman's forced withdrawal. Pakistan lacks Oman's banking infrastructure for frozen-asset routing and carries its own regional stakes, making it a less structurally neutral broker for the Qatar-held $12 billion sequencing.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter after absorbing an Iranian ballistic-missile strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base on 28 May, becoming the first Gulf state to make a formal individual self-defence claim in the war. The invocation creates a legal record enabling a future bilateral defence-pact activation without yet triggering it.
Oman
Oman
Oman denied any Hormuz toll plan within hours of Bessent's 28 May threat, absorbing a sanctions warning from the country it has brokered for since 1981. The rapid capitulation preserved the channel formally, but Tehran now knows Washington will threaten its own mediator, which changes Muscat's calculus on how far it can lean into any joint-management architecture.