Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
25MAY

Iran resumes fire after 11-hour pause

3 min read
13:55UTC

Cluster munitions struck a residential area in Bnei Brak, wounding six children, hours after Iran ended an 11-hour pause that had briefly supported Trump's ceasefire narrative.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Resumption immediately after Trump's victory claim exposes the gap between declared and actual battlefield reality.

Iran resumed hourly missile and rocket barrages against Israeli cities on Tuesday, ending an 11-hour pause that had coincided with President Trump's claims of ceasefire progress. Ten barrages were launched from Iranian territory and two from Lebanon. Cluster munitions struck Bnei Brak, a densely populated city adjacent to Tel Aviv, wounding 12 people — six of them children. A 94-year-old woman was pulled from the top floor of a building that took a direct hit. A 100-kilogram warhead landed between residential buildings in central Tel Aviv. In northern Israel, the combined attacks killed one woman and wounded at least 18.

The timing follows a pattern NOW visible across the war's fourth week. The pause began as Trump announced his postponement of the power-plant strike ultimatum on Sunday, citing "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran . The resumption came after Iran categorically denied any negotiations and parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf accused Trump of market manipulation. Whatever purpose the pause served — operational reset, ammunition conservation, or a signal to mediators — it did not reflect movement toward a ceasefire.

CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper reported on Sunday that Iranian forces NOW fire missiles "one or two at a time," down from dozens at the war's opening . The American Enterprise Institute assessed launch rates have fallen more than 90% since 28 February. The capacity is degraded; the threat to civilians is not. Cluster munitions — weapons that scatter submunitions across a wide radius — compensate for reduced launch volume with indiscriminate effect on the ground. Days earlier, an Iranian cluster munition struck an empty kindergarten in Rishon LeZion, leaving 11 impact craters . The Bnei Brak strike hit an occupied residential neighbourhood. The two barrages from Lebanese territory confirm Hezbollah continues to function as a coordinated second front despite Israeli operations south of the Litani, including the killing of Radwan Force commander Abu Khalil Barji days earlier .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran halted missile launches for approximately 11 hours — a pause that coincided exactly with Trump's announcement that the US had won the war. Attacks then resumed, with cluster munitions hitting Bnei Brak, one of Israel's most densely populated cities. Cluster munitions scatter hundreds of small bomblets across wide areas and are internationally condemned for their disproportionate civilian impact. Six children were among the wounded. The timing of the resumption was diplomatically devastating for Washington's ceasefire narrative.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The 11-hour pause was precisely long enough for Trump to claim a ceasefire, and the resumption swift enough to humiliate that claim within the same news cycle. Iran appears to have calibrated the pause to extract a premature US declaration, then used its resumption to demonstrate that battlefield reality does not match White House rhetoric. This is a sophisticated information operation running in parallel with the military campaign: Iran denies negotiations publicly while conducting them privately, and uses the missile campaign's tempo to signal credibility and desperation simultaneously.

Root Causes

CENTCOM's own data showing a 90% reduction in Iranian launch rates may be analytically misread as capacity degradation. Sequential single or paired launches force Iron Dome batteries to engage targets individually, potentially exhausting interceptor magazines faster than mass salvos that trigger staggered multi-battery responses. Iran may be optimising for interceptor attrition rather than strike volume — a doctrine shift with significant long-term implications for Israeli air defence sustainability.

Escalation

Iran's use of cluster munitions in Bnei Brak — population approximately 200,000 in one of Israel's densest urban areas — marks a deliberate escalation in civilian targeting intensity. Separately, the shift to 100kg warheads manoeuvred between buildings in Tel Aviv suggests Iran is adapting its targeting methodology to defeat Iron Dome by reducing the radar cross-section of individual projectiles rather than relying on saturation.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The diplomatic credibility of any US-brokered ceasefire announcement is structurally damaged when Iran can resume attacks within hours, confirming Tehran's negotiating and military tracks operate independently.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Cluster munitions use in densely populated Israeli cities risks a mass-casualty incident that could trigger an IDF escalation beyond current operational parameters regardless of diplomatic progress.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Sequential low-volume launches may represent a deliberate strategy to exhaust Israeli air defence interceptor stocks rather than evidence of degraded Iranian capability.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    Iran's cluster munitions use against Israeli cities establishes a precedent other non-signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions may cite in future urban conflicts.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #47 · 82nd Airborne to Gulf; Trump claims victory

Times of Israel· 25 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Iran resumes fire after 11-hour pause
Iran retains the capacity to deliver indiscriminate area-effect weapons to Israeli population centres 26 days into the campaign. The resumed barrages — timed to follow Iran's categorical denial of negotiations — demonstrate that degraded launch capacity is not the same as an eliminated threat to civilians.
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.
Gulf Arab producers
Gulf Arab producers
Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.
Pakistan
Pakistan
With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.
China
China
Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.
United States
United States
Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.