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European Oil Markets
15JUN

Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

2 min read
11:33UTC

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since May, and traders tied the jump straight to the tanker strikes in the Bab al-Mandab.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent cleared $100 because the southern reroute closed, not because the strikes on Iran grew heavier.

Brent Crude crossed $100 a barrel on 23 July for the first time since 26 May, rising about 6.7% to roughly $100.37 by 1401 GMT, with traders tying the move directly to the previous day's tanker strikes 1. The benchmark had closed at $92.09 only a day earlier , the top of a slow four-session climb.

Brent is the international price for seaborne crude, the benchmark behind roughly two-thirds of the world's traded oil, and it carries structural exposure to shipping chokepoints that inland grades do not. For a fortnight it had shrugged off vertical escalation, more nights and a rising toll, because the barrels kept moving through the dark fleet and the Omani-shore reroute south of Hormuz, which kept cargoes reaching buyers even as the northern strait was contested.

A strike in the Bab al-Mandab removes that release valve, so the market is now pricing two contested chokepoints at once rather than one. One caution belongs on the print. Oil has spiked and faded before in this war, clearing $87 on the July blockade before sliding as cargoes found a way round. The second tanker, the Layla, remains an unconfirmed Houthi claim, and a single denied strike could take the premium out as quickly as it went in.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main international price used to set oil costs around the world. On 23 July it went above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, jumping sharply in a single day. Traders say the jump is a direct reaction to the tanker strikes: when ships carrying oil through dangerous waters become targets themselves, the oil gets more expensive because it costs more to ship and insure. This matters at the petrol pump and in home energy bills. Oil prices this high, if they hold, tend to filter through to what people pay to fill a car or heat a home within weeks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Brent's structural exposure to chokepoint risk is built into the benchmark itself: it prices seaborne North Sea and Gulf cargoes, unlike West Texas Intermediate, which moves overwhelmingly by pipeline and reacts far less to Gulf shipping risk.

The move above $100 also compounds a climb that was already under way before the Encelia strike, so the jump builds on an existing tightening rather than starting from a calm baseline.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Sustained Brent prices above $100 typically reach UK and European pump prices within two to four weeks, given normal refining and distribution lags.

  • Risk

    If insurers keep pricing Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz as active war zones, the premium embedded in Brent may not unwind quickly even if strikes pause, unlike the rapid snapback seen after Abqaiq in 2019.

First Reported In

Update #160 · Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100

Reuters· 23 Jul 2026
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Different Perspectives
Sanctions compliance officer reviewing a Lukoil International GmbH bid
Sanctions compliance officer reviewing a Lukoil International GmbH bid
OFAC's amended FAQ 1224 gives a compliance desk its first published standard: full severance from Lukoil and a US-jurisdiction blocked account for sale proceeds. The conditions name neither ISAB nor Italy, so a Priolo Gargallo-linked bid answers a different question than a Neftochim Burgas or Petrotel Ploiesti one.
Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day
Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day
CFTC data for the week to 21 July showed managed money flipping 74,400 contracts to a net long of 15,665 against 1,410 short on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T. A fund that held that short through July has now covered it, and the spent short base raises the bar for the next leg higher.
Saudi crude exporters
Saudi crude exporters
Saudi-linked tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to about 7.5 a day after the 24 July underwriting withdrawal, pushing more barrels onto the longer route round the Cape or through the Yanbu terminal. Every diverted barrel ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.
Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route
Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route
Lloyd's-market syndicates withdrew war-risk cover from Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July, leaving owners of that class of vessel to sail Bab el-Mandeb uninsured or not at all. Tanker transits on the route fell to roughly 7.5 a day, and cover, once withdrawn, does not return on a shipowner's timetable.
Eni
Eni
Eni's board approved second-quarter results on 29 July, swinging refining EBIT to a EUR0.08bn profit from a year-earlier loss even as group profit doubled, and named Red Sea freight cost as a cap on that improvement. A refiner absorbing higher shipping costs on Saudi-linked crude while its numbers improve treats the freight line as a drag, not a crisis.
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)
Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.