15JUN

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

1 min read

11:33UTC

Brent crude closed at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, one day after crossing $100 for the first time since May. Reports of reviving mediation did the work.

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Key takeaway

Brent gave back its move above $100 within a day, on mediation reports rather than any signed agreement.

Brent Crude, the global benchmark for seaborne oil, settled at $98.38 a barrel on 24 July, down 2.29 per cent, as reports circulated that mediation between Washington and Tehran was reviving ¹. The fall came a day after the contract crossed $100 for the first time since May .

Donald Trump spent 24 July telling Axios he was weighing a larger operation, and the price still fell. Traders priced the pause rather than the promise: a quiet night over Iranian airspace and mediation chatter around the Iraqi channel moved the benchmark down more than two per cent in a session, while the rhetoric moved it not at all.

Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so the conflict premium embedded in that $98.38 is a function of shipping risk rather than of barrels lost to date. The 24 July session showed that premium responding to diplomatic signals, which matters to refiners hedging cargoes and to Gulf producers setting budgets against a number that can move two dollars on a report neither government has confirmed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Brent crude is the main global price used for oil bought and sold by sea, and it affects what people pay for petrol and heating. It dropped by about 2 per cent on 24 July, to $98.38 a barrel, after reports suggested that US and Iranian mediators were talking again. The day before, the price had gone above $100 for the first time since May. Oil traders tend to react quickly to any hint of peace talks in this war, even before anyone confirms whether the talks are real, so prices can jump around a lot on rumour alone.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A one-day price fall on mediation rumours, rather than a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaves Brent vulnerable to snapping back if the reports prove unfounded.

Sources:Trading Economics

Mentions:Brent Crude →Axios →Tehran →Washington →Strait of Hormuz →Donald Trump →

First Reported In

Update #161 · Bahrain and Kuwait struck Iran, WSJ reports

Trading Economics· 25 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

CENTCOM pauses as Trump warns of more

Brent fell on the night CENTCOM did not fly rather than on Trump's rhetoric.

Occurred 24 Jul 2026

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Brent tops $100 as the reroute closes

Brent's fall to $98.38 reverses part of the record climb above $100 the day before.

Occurred 22 Jul 2026

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This Event

Brent slips to $98.38 on talks reports

The benchmark gave back its gain on the day American strikes paused, which puts a price on the difference between a quiet night and a presidential threat.

Led to

Brent gives back its escalation gain

Brent's earlier ease on mediation reports (ID:5302) prefigures this week's fall on the Riyadh coalition announcement.

Occurred 31 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Sanctions compliance officer reviewing a Lukoil International GmbH bid

OFAC's amended FAQ 1224 gives a compliance desk its first published standard: full severance from Lukoil and a US-jurisdiction blocked account for sale proceeds. The conditions name neither ISAB nor Italy, so a Priolo Gargallo-linked bid answers a different question than a Neftochim Burgas or Petrotel Ploiesti one.

Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day

CFTC data for the week to 21 July showed managed money flipping 74,400 contracts to a net long of 15,665 against 1,410 short on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T. A fund that held that short through July has now covered it, and the spent short base raises the bar for the next leg higher.

Saudi crude exporters

Saudi-linked tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to about 7.5 a day after the 24 July underwriting withdrawal, pushing more barrels onto the longer route round the Cape or through the Yanbu terminal. Every diverted barrel ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.

Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route

Lloyd's-market syndicates withdrew war-risk cover from Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July, leaving owners of that class of vessel to sail Bab el-Mandeb uninsured or not at all. Tanker transits on the route fell to roughly 7.5 a day, and cover, once withdrawn, does not return on a shipowner's timetable.

Eni

Eni's board approved second-quarter results on 29 July, swinging refining EBIT to a EUR0.08bn profit from a year-earlier loss even as group profit doubled, and named Red Sea freight cost as a cap on that improvement. A refiner absorbing higher shipping costs on Saudi-linked crude while its numbers improve treats the freight line as a drag, not a crisis.

Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)

Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.