Brent settled $88.10 on Friday 17 July after an Iranian strike on a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, then took the $90 handle on Monday 20 July. Tanker freight and Gulf war-risk cover moved with it, the first time in this conflict the physical legs have confirmed the flat price. The last public positioning snapshot, taken 14 July, showed managed money had cut its WTI net length by 69% going in. We also correct our own record on ISAB.
Freight and insurance confirmed Brent's move to $90 for the first time this conflict; positioning data predates it.
Kuwait's government said an Iranian strike had knocked generating units offline at a combined power and desalination plant; Brent settled $88.10 that Friday and took the $90 handle by Monday.
United States×2Brent jumped to $88.10 on 17 July after Iran struck a Kuwaiti power plant. By 20 July, after nine nights of US strikes on Iran, Brent topped $90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $84.38.
The gap between the two prices widened to $5.61 and held there. Sea-based Brent keeps rising faster than land-locked WTI, because ships, not pipelines, carry the Hormuz risk.
The Baltic Exchange assessed the Middle East Gulf to China VLCC route at WS372 on 17 July, and Hormuz war-risk hull cover widened the same day to a 3-10% band with 5% the emerging norm.
United Arab EmiratesThe Baltic Exchange assessed the TD3C Gulf-to-China route at WS372 on 17 July, up 27% from WS293.89 on 3 July. Hormuz war-risk cover widened to 5% of hull value the same day.
Freight and insurance had stayed calm for six weeks despite Brent's swings. Two tankers actually hit in the Gulf forced underwriters and shipbrokers to reprice the risk.
The CFTC's 17 July Commitments of Traders report put the NYMEX WTI managed-money net long at 19,783 contracts for the week to 14 July, a 69% cut from 64,041 seven days earlier.
The weekly US trading-positions report, released 17 July, showed managed money slashed bullish bets on US crude oil 69%, to 19,783 contracts from 64,041. It also showed a standalone Brent short of 60,141 contracts.
The snapshot only covers positions to 14 July, three days before the Kuwait strike. Nobody can tell yet whether traders have already reversed course.
The operative text of OFAC's General License 131G authorises negotiation only for Lukoil International GmbH and entities it owns at 50% or more. It names neither ISAB, Priolo Gargallo nor Italy.
General License 131G, issued 25 June by the US Treasury's sanctions arm (OFAC), lets Lukoil International GmbH negotiate sales for itself and its 50%+ units. It never named the Sicilian refinery (ISAB).
Litasco sold ISAB to GOI (its current owner) in 2023. GOI is now selling to Ludoil Energy, so an Italian buyer and a Milan court, not OFAC, decide the fate.
EU member states have set a fresh attempt at the 21st sanctions package for Wednesday 22 July, a day before the frozen Russian oil price cap lapses. Six capitals are holding it, none of them over oil.
EU states set a fresh COREPER vote on the 21st Russia sanctions package for Wednesday 22 July, a day before the $44.10 price cap freeze expires. Greece and five other states now block it.
Germany, France, Italy, Austria and Portugal each hold their own condition, and none concerns oil. Fish quotas, visas and bank compensation are blocking the tool that moves Russian export prices.
Total product stocks at Fujairah rose to 10.147m barrels in the week to 13 July, a three-month high. Middle distillates inside that total fell 9.7% to a three-month low.
Total oil product stocks at the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah hub rose 0.2% to 10.147m barrels in the week to 13 July, a three-month high. Middle distillates fell 9.7% to a three-month low.
Light distillates jumped 12% while heavy distillates slipped slightly. A hub building gasoline-range fuel while draining diesel has no spare barrels to send toward Europe.
Singapore middle distillates rose 12% month-to-date to 8.91m barrels and fuel oil passed 19m on a 105% surge in net imports, while ARA built fuel oil on fewer imports rather than more.
Singapore's middle distillates rose 12% this month to 8.91m barrels, and fuel oil topped 19m barrels on a 105% import jump. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub (ARA) built fuel oil too, on fewer imports.
Asia is keeping its diesel and fuel oil rather than shipping it to Europe. With Gulf freight and insurance both up, the long way round no longer pays.
Direction: up. The mechanism that would tip it further is a second actuarial loss event, a struck tanker or an insured cargo, pushing Hormuz war-risk cover past the 10% ceiling already quoted. The mechanism that would reverse it is the 22 July Coreper vote clearing the 21st sanctions package and extending the $44.10 cap before Thursday's freeze lapses, or a CFTC print showing managed money had already covered into the move.
