10JUL

Ships with no Iranian tie quit Hormuz

4 min read

09:40UTC

Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 78 Hormuz transits in the week to 9 August against 95 the week before. The sharpest fall, 63 to 45, came in ships with no Iranian link.

← Back to Three shocks, one week, across the oil spreads Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicDeveloping

Key takeaway

Hormuz traffic fell 18 per cent, and the ships with no Iranian link fell 29 per cent.

Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 78 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of 3 to 9 August, against 95 the week before, in a brief published on Wednesday 12 August ¹. Of that 78, 45 carried no Iranian link, down from 63. The total fell 18 per cent while the non-Iranian count fell 29 per cent, so the strait is not emptying evenly.

Eighteen owners with no Iranian connection made a different choice this week from the one they made last week. Each of those hulls is a cargo that did not sail, a delivery date that moved, and a war-risk premium an underwriter decided was not worth paying. One caveat travels with the series: this briefing's own figure of 84 weekly transits, published on 7 August , counts to a different week boundary and cannot be added to it.

The two trackers part company on where the remaining ships have gone. Kpler calls the passage now carrying most tanker traffic "the Iranian route", a corridor Tehran announced by itself in April that the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations shipping regulator, has never approved and that neither Washington nor Brussels recognises ². Lloyd's, in the same 12 August brief, reports activity concentrating instead on the Omani coast, where masters can stay outside Iran's traffic system altogether ³. Both see shipping abandoning the historic centre line. Neither agrees on which shore it moved towards, and the gap is not a rounding error: one reading has Iran gaining control of the waterway, the other has shipping routing around Iran entirely.

For Tuesday 11 August the day counts do not reconcile either. CNN, citing Kpler, reported 14 crossings, 11 of them on the Iranian route and none on the centre line ⁴. A Reuters wire, also citing Kpler and captured at 04:20 GMT the following morning, reported six crossings and gave no route split at all ⁵. Neither is Kpler's own publication for that date, so both stand here and neither is settled. Before the war Kpler counted 120 to 140 crossings a day . The drop lands in the same week Iran's security council chief told China's ambassador the strait reopens only when the United States ends its war .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that most Gulf oil has to pass through. Since the war started, ships have increasingly used an alternative route that Iran declared for itself in April, rather than the traditional shipping lane down the middle. Two separate tracking firms, Kpler and Lloyd's List Intelligence, count how many ships cross and by which route, but their most recent numbers for the same day do not match: one says 14 ships, the other says 6. What both agree on is that ships with no connection to Iran are leaving the strait faster than ships that do have an Iranian tie, suggesting foreign shippers increasingly treat the waterway itself as the risk, alongside the war.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Neither Kpler nor Lloyd's List Intelligence can reconcile a single count because both firms infer routing from AIS transponder data, and Kpler's own note on 23 July already flagged that unofficial volumes may be higher than tracked, due to AIS-dark ship-to-ship transfers.

A route Iran declared unilaterally, outside any IMO traffic-separation scheme, has no authoritative registry either tracker can check against: only two private firms interpreting the same patchy signal, with no shared methodology published by either.

What could happen next?

Consequence
A durable fork onto an IMO-unrecognised route would leave transiting vessels without the legal transit-passage protections the historic centre line carries, raising insurance and liability questions for any incident that occurs on it.
Risk
Because the two main trackers cannot currently agree on a single day's vessel count, any policy response built on either figure risks acting on a snapshot rather than a verified trend.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United Kingdom, France and 1 more

United Kingdom

France

United States

LeftRight

Primary parallel: During the 1984-88 Tanker War, Kuwait reflagged its tankers under the US flag so they could travel a corridor US warships were committed to defending, splitting Gulf shipping onto a track each side could contest without either conceding the strait itself. Today's fork between the historic centre line and Iran's own route follows the same logic: traffic did not stop, it forked.

Counter-parallel: The 1987 Kuwaiti reflagging came with an explicit US Navy escort commitment and a published corridor. Iran's April-declared route has neither an IMO endorsement nor any naval guarantee, and Kpler's own analysts caution that unofficial volumes on it may run higher still, since ships increasingly cross with AIS transponders switched off for ship-to-ship transfers.

Lloyd's List Intelligence's own weekly Transit Monitor recorded a second consecutive fall: 78 total transits in the week to 9 August against 95 the week before, and non-Iranian-linked transits down 29% to 45 from 63, reversing the recovery the same tracker had flagged five days earlier when weekly transits rose to 84 from 45 .

That reversal means the story is not simple recovery from the July collapse. Vessels with no Iranian tie are leaving the waterway roughly twice as fast as the fleet overall, which is consistent with non-Iranian-linked shippers judging the unrecognised Iranian route, or the risk of using it, worse than staying out of the strait altogether.

Consensus view: Kpler's day-level tracking, relayed by CNN, counted 14 vessels crossing the strait on 11 August, 11 of them via what Kpler's own 23 July blog calls the "Iranian unilateral route", a corridor Tehran announced itself in April but which carries no IMO recognition and no US or EU sign-off. None crossed via the historic centre line.

Counter-view: A Reuters wire relayed by Al-Monitor, The Hill and BOE Report, citing the same Kpler dataset but captured at 0420 GMT the following morning, put 11 August's total at just 6 vessels, four inbound and two outbound, against a 10-day average of roughly 11 a day, and reported no route breakdown at all.

Key tension: Whether the near-total shift onto the Iranian route is a structural change in how shippers now navigate Hormuz, or an artefact of two different snapshots taken from the same underlying feed at different times of day.

First Reported In

Update #170 · The ships Iran does not control are leaving Hormuz

Lloyd's List Intelligence· 14 Aug 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Hormuz transits rise to an eighth of normal

This week's 78-transit reading follows last week's 84-transit count from the same tracker.

Occurred 6 Aug 2026

Read story →

This Event

Ships with no Iranian tie quit Hormuz

The composition of Hormuz traffic moved faster than the total, and the two firms watching the water disagree on which shore the departing ships have moved to.

Led to

Five ships crossed Hormuz in a day

Departing Hormuz traffic already skewed non-Iranian on 12 August; by 16 August the transit count had collapsed further to five vessels a day.

Occurred 16 Aug 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Gulf oil producer

Secured OPEC's confirmed 188,000 b/d September increment with the next meeting set for 6 September, but the Secretariat's own 2 August release says nothing about the fourth quarter. Output guidance beyond September remains undisclosed even as delegate sourcing keeps filling that gap.

Money manager positioned in WTI

Added 21,402 lots to a 108,307 net long in NYMEX WTI in the week to 28 July, against just 1,485 added to Brent's 15,740, a roughly fourteen-to-one split. Conviction sits in the American benchmark even as the European diesel story sets the record.

Indian refiner buying Urals

Bought Russian crude at a discount that narrowed to $1-2 a barrel in the week to 29 July from over $10, as Hormuz risk pushed it toward Urals. If that risk eases with the strike now called off, the discount it is currently enjoying could re-widen just as fast.

Russian diesel exporter

Novak tied any lifting of the diesel export ban, due to lapse 31 July, to an unspecified market recovery with no date, and pushed the gasoline ban to end-2026. An open-ended constraint suits an exporter benefiting from the record European crack it feeds.

War-risk underwriter

Withdrew war-risk cover for Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July and has not reinstated it, holding Bab el-Mandeb tanker transits near 7.5 a day. A cancelled strike does not by itself trigger the committee review needed to re-accept the class.

Northwest European refiner

Sources only 17% of diesel imports from Saudi Red Sea ports against the Mediterranean's 24%, so the ARA crack at $85.86 trails the Med print by $5.81. Lower Red Sea exposure is cushioning it against the rerouting cost, not eliminating it.