Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
27JUL

Europe condemns war it will not fight

3 min read
09:24UTC

France demanded a UN Security Council session, Spain called the operation destabilising, and the EU called for restraint — but no European government has offered forces, mediation, or a plan to end it.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

France's UNSC call cannot produce a binding resolution but is likely the opening move toward a 'Uniting for Peace' General Assembly vote that would formally delegitimise the operation in the eyes of most of the world without constraining it militarily.

France called for an emergency UN Security Council session. The European Union called for "restraint." Spain described the US-Israeli operation as contributing to "a more uncertain and hostile international order." The statements arrived within the same 72-hour window as Britain's refusal to join offensive operations — a cascade of European distancing that left Washington and Jerusalem prosecuting Operation Epic Fury without a single NATO ally.

The fracture is wider than Iraq. In February 2003, France and Germany opposed the invasion, but Britain, Poland, Spain under Aznar, Denmark, and Australia joined a coalition that eventually numbered over 40 states. In 2011, France and Britain led the Libya intervention with broad European participation. Here, no European state has committed forces. Even Britain's contribution is limited to base access described as defensive , and London has publicly refused to go further. The coalition consists of two states: the United States and Israel.

France's Security Council call is procedurally available but practically constrained — the United States holds a permanent veto, and no resolution condemning the strikes can pass without American consent. The session's value is forensic: a forum where the legal basis for the campaign will be examined on the record. That record matters because the Pentagon's 90-minute congressional briefing reportedly produced no evidence of the imminent Iranian threat cited as the operation's justification , a gap Senator Mark Warner of the Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed publicly on NPR. Spain's position carries additional weight because the Sánchez government recognised Palestinian statehood in May 2024, establishing Madrid as among the more willing European critics of Israeli military operations.

The EU's collective "restraint" is the institutional minimum — the lowest common denominator among 27 member states whose positions range from Spain's open criticism to the near-silence of countries with close US defence ties. What is absent from every European statement is any proposal for intervention, mediation, or enforcement. South Africa, which brought the ICJ genocide case against Israel, has not criticised Washington. India condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf States at the UN but issued no statement on the US-Israeli strikes that started the campaign . Europe, the Global South's leading diplomatic voices, and the BRICS bloc — which has issued no joint statement more than a week into the strikes — have opinions about this war. None has a plan to end it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The UN Security Council is the only body that can legally authorise or stop a war — but the United States can veto anything it dislikes, making France's emergency session call more symbolic than decisive. What France is actually building is a diplomatic record: countries going on record opposing the strikes, potentially setting up a vote in the broader UN General Assembly where there is no veto. Such a vote cannot stop the war or impose sanctions, but a result like the 141-nation vote condemning Russia's Ukraine invasion would formally label Operation Epic Fury as illegal under international law in the eyes of most states — with downstream consequences for international institutions, courts, and eventually post-war reconstruction funding. Spain going further than EU consensus language suggests at least some European governments believe Washington is too absorbed by the Iran campaign to punish dissent right now.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

A successful 'Uniting for Peace' General Assembly resolution would have a precedent-setting function beyond this conflict: it would establish that US military operations lacking Security Council authorisation and contested on imminent-threat grounds can be multilaterally condemned through the same mechanism used against Russia — reducing the legal asymmetry that has historically shielded US operations from that treatment.

Root Causes

The EU's inability to produce stronger than 'restraint' language reflects the unanimity requirement for EU Common Foreign and Security Policy hard security decisions — the lowest-common-denominator position that kept Hungary and potentially other US-sympathetic members from blocking even minimal collective expression. Spain's willingness to exceed that consensus reflects Madrid's calculation that Washington's attention is currently too absorbed to impose costs on European dissent.

Escalation

Channelling European opposition into UNSC procedure and potential General Assembly action reduces the risk of military escalation by European powers but could increase indirect pressure on shipping insurers, financial institutions, and multilateral lenders to treat the operation as unlawful — with consequences for post-conflict reconstruction financing if a General Assembly resolution passes.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    A General Assembly resolution condemning the strikes through 'Uniting for Peace' would establish that US military operations can be subjected to the same multilateral delegitimisation mechanism previously applied to Russia — reducing legal asymmetry that has historically shielded US action.

    Long term · Suggested
  • Consequence

    European diplomatic opposition documented at the UNSC will shape post-conflict reconstruction negotiations, potentially conditioning EU financial contributions on accountability for civilian casualties.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Risk

    A non-binding UNGA resolution condemning the operation could provide legal basis for international financial institutions and private insurers to decline participation in post-conflict reconstruction, complicating whatever governance arrangement follows the military phase.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Meaning

    Spain's willingness to exceed EU consensus language signals that at least some European governments calculate Washington lacks the bandwidth to punish allied dissent during an active multi-front campaign.

    Immediate · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #9 · IRGC HQ destroyed; Britain quits coalition

Al Jazeera· 2 Mar 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Europe condemns war it will not fight
No European ally has joined the US-Israeli campaign, producing the narrowest coalition for a major American military operation since the 1986 US strikes on Libya. The transatlantic fracture is wider than Iraq 2003, when Britain, Poland, and over 30 states participated.
Different Perspectives
Slovakia
Slovakia
Slovakia says it dropped its hold-out on the 21st sanctions package only after Ursula von der Leyen personally signed written gas-price and supply guarantees. The Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character release on the package names neither Slovakia nor any guarantee, leaving Bratislava's account unconfirmed by the institutional record.
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.
French power exporters
French power exporters
French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.
European gas storage operator
European gas storage operator
A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.
French industrial power consumers
French industrial power consumers
France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.