The US-Iran strike halt cut TTF about 8 percent, but German day-ahead power fell 41 percent, and Germany's clean spark spread collapsed to between minus €40 and minus €46 per MWh, the worst of the cycle. Wind, not diplomacy, did most of that. France pulled €43 below Germany on Sunday with nuclear output flat, which means this desk named the wrong driver a week ago.
Gas fell 8 per cent on the Iran halt; German wind cut power 41 per cent; carbon never moved.
German day-ahead power fell 41 per cent between Friday and Monday as onshore wind rose sevenfold. The clean spark spread went to minus €40 to minus €46/MWh on cheaper gas, not dearer.
United StatesGermany's day-ahead power price fell 41 per cent from €130.97/MWh on Friday 24 July to €76.97 on Monday 27 July as onshore wind generation rose sevenfold from 2.97 GW to 22.56 GW, driving the German clean spark spread to between minus €40.42 and minus €45.91/MWh, the worst of the cycle, while TTF fell only 8 per cent over the same period.
A spark spread this deep on falling fuel prices tells German gas plants their problem is weather, not the gas price.
French day-ahead cleared €41.13/MWh on Sunday against Germany's €84.22, the widest discount of the run. Our own WATCH FOR said French nuclear would drive it. French nuclear did not move.
French day-ahead power cleared €41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July against Germany's €84.22, a €43.09 discount versus €4.06 on 20 July, even as French nuclear output stayed flat at 39.07 GW; the widening tracked a Sunday demand trough and a doubling of French onshore wind, not the nuclear recovery this desk's prior WATCH FOR anticipated.
A cross-border spread position framed on EDF outage calendars turns out to carry an unhedged German wind exposure.
CENTCOM announced no new action against Iran on Friday 24 July while Trump was still threatening a larger operation. Iran stopped retaliating by the 25th, and that is the date European gas moved on.
United Arab EmiratesThe halt developed across two days. US Central Command announced no new military action against Iran on Friday 24 July, the same day President Trump told Axios he was weighing an operation bigger than any before, so the stand-down was not yet mutual. Iran ceased retaliating by 25 July, making the halt mutual a day later. The wire's Friday weekday belongs to CENTCOM's 24 July announcement; it was mislabelled onto the 25 July mutual halt, which this desk tracks because that is the date the gas price moved on.
The halt only became mutual on 25 July, which is why the war premium left TTF a day after the first announcement.
Slovak reporting describes written Commission gas guarantees signed by Ursula von der Leyen. The Council's own 17,238-character press release on the package mentions Slovakia zero times.
Slovak-language reporting describes written European Commission commitments, personally signed by Ursula von der Leyen, covering gas price, supply security, transit fees and a crisis mechanism able to suspend the Russian gas import ban as the price of Slovakia lifting its hold-out on the EU's 21st sanctions package on 23 July; the Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character press release on the package contains zero references to Slovakia, Greece, Dynagas, a guarantee, crisis mechanism or transit fee.
A crisis clause in a Commission instrument can be invoked when prices spike; an unwritten political assurance cannot, and only the second is evidenced.
EUA December-2026 allowances closed at €83.51/tonne on 27 July against €83.40 on the 24th, a move of 0.01 per cent, through the sharpest four sessions of the cycle.
United StatesEUA December-2026 carbon allowances closed at €83.51/tonne on 27 July against €83.40 on 24 July, a 0.01 per cent move, holding flat through an 8 per cent gas-price fall and a 41 per cent German power-price fall over the same four sessions.
Carbon holding flat while both other spark inputs collapsed is the cleanest evidence that two separate shocks hit, not one de-escalation trade.
TTF front-month reached roughly €63.50/MWh on 24 July, its highest print since January 2023, then broke to €58.40 by the 27th as the strike halt held.
United Arab EmiratesTTF front-month gas reached roughly €63.50/MWh on 24 July, per aggregator quotes on the ICE-settled front-month contract rather than exchange settlement prints, its highest print since January 2023, then broke about 8 per cent to €58.40 by 27 July as the US-Iran strike halt held.
The fuel leg gave back a risk premium rather than repricing supply, which is why eight per cent was all it had to give.
At the top of the war premium the German clean spark spread printed plus €4.81/MWh at 58 per cent efficiency and minus €1.16 at 55 per cent. It was the only near-breakeven print of the cycle.
United StatesAt the peak of the war premium on Friday 24 July, the German clean spark spread briefly turned viable: plus €4.81/MWh at 58 per cent efficiency and minus €1.16/MWh at 55 per cent, on German day-ahead power of €130.97/MWh with TTF near €63.50/MWh and EUA carbon at €83.40/tonne, while German onshore wind sat at its weekly low of 2.97 GW.
Friday's print fixes the fleet's break-even power price, which is the number every later spread reading is measured against.
German day-ahead printed minus €15.01/MWh in its lowest quarter-hour on Saturday 25 July, France minus €11.32, the first sub-zero prints of the window.
Germany printed minus €15.01/MWh and France minus €11.32/MWh in their lowest quarter-hours on Saturday 25 July, the first sub-zero prints of the window after a hard zero floor earlier in the week, even as the German daily mean that day held at €89.90 on 18.86 GW of solar into a 44.4 GW load.
Negative quarter-hours alongside a daily mean near €90 make this a shape problem inside the day, not a collapse in the level.
German fossil-gas generation fell from 4.37 GW on 24 July to 2.09 GW on the 26th and 2.85 GW on the 27th, over the same days that gas itself got cheaper.
German fossil-gas generation fell from 4.37 GW on 24 July to 2.09 GW on 26 July and 2.85 GW on 27 July even as TTF fell 8 per cent over the same window, because below roughly minus €40/MWh on the spark spread the fuel price stops being the binding input on dispatch.
Below roughly minus €40/MWh on the spread, the fuel price stops being the binding input on dispatch, so a cheaper cargo changes nothing.
Direction: sideways. The spread reverses only if German onshore wind reverts toward its 2.97 GW low or TTF gives back materially more than the 8 per cent already priced; the dated trigger to watch is StromVKG's first 4.5 GW gas capacity auction, bids due 8 September 2026, the earliest scheduled change to a dispatchable-capacity stack that currently has no answer to a wind surge this size.
