Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
18JUN

Houthi blockade cuts Saudi loadings 36%

2 min read
09:57UTC

Saudi crude loadings through Bab el-Mandeb fell 36% before the Houthis struck the tankers Encelia and Layla on 23 July, turning a blockade threat into realised losses.

← Back to German spark spread flips +EUR 15 in 48hrsJump to analysis ↓
EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Rerouting round the Cape keeps Saudi barrels flowing but ties up ships and lifts freight.

Saudi crude loadings through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that funnels Suez-bound shipping, fell 36% in two weeks, from 9.5 million barrels a day at the 29 June peak to 6.1 million in the week of 13 July, before a shot was fired 1. The Houthis, the Yemeni armed movement that controls the country's Red Sea coast, declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping through the strait on 20 July. On 23 July they struck two Saudi tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, with missiles and drones in the Red Sea; both caught fire, the Encelia broadcast 'not under command', and no crew casualties were reported 2.

More than 2,000 ships have already rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to three weeks to a Europe-bound voyage, and Saudi exporters have pushed over 70% of their barrels to the west-coast terminal at Yanbu to skip the strait entirely. The military dimension belongs to the Gulf war that took Brent past $90 on Iran's strike against Kuwait . Every barrel that rounds the Cape instead of transiting Suez ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.

Analysts cited by Bloomberg warn that a full Bab el-Mandeb closure stacked on the Hormuz constraint could put roughly a quarter of world oil and gas at risk 3. That figure describes a ceiling rather than a base case: the strait is being avoided, not sealed, and rerouting round the Cape keeps the barrels flowing at a higher freight cost rather than removing them from the market.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed group that controls much of Yemen and has fought a civil war there since 2014. In 2023 they began attacking ships in the Red Sea they linked to Israel; they have now declared a blockade specifically targeting vessels connected to Saudi Arabia. Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that ships must pass through to reach the Suez Canal from the Red Sea. Two Saudi tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, were hit by missiles and drones there, and Saudi crude loadings through the strait fell more than a third in two weeks as shippers diverted cargo. That matters because Saudi Arabia can reroute some crude to its Red Sea port at Yanbu, but the slower, longer voyage round the Cape of Good Hope adds cost and time that ultimately reaches fuel buyers in Europe and Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Houthi anti-ship missile and drone capability traces to transfers routed through Yemen's Hodeidah corridor, a supply chain UN Panel of Experts reporting has documented since 2015. That dependency gives external suppliers indirect leverage over Red Sea shipping without direct naval engagement of their own.

Saudi Arabia's Bab el-Mandeb exposure is structural: crude loaded at Red Sea terminals for European and North African buyers has no chokepoint-free alternative besides the slower, costlier Yanbu-to-Cape route, which is now absorbing the diverted cargoes, part of the same Gulf war Iran's Kuwait strike opened .

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A sustained Bab el-Mandeb blockade would compound Suez-dependent Mediterranean freight costs already rising on aframax pricing, layering a second Red Sea risk premium onto European-bound cargoes.

Sources:The National·Bloomberg
Mentions:Houthis →Saudi Arabia →Bab al-Mandeb →Cape of Good Hope →Yanbu →Yemen →Iran →Fujairah →Gulf Research Centre →Red Sea →Kuwait →Bloomberg →Israel →Encelia →Layla →RUSI →Suez Crisis →Dated Brent →
First Reported In

Update #19 · Second chokepoint doubles Med freight

The National· 23 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Brent takes $90 on the ninth night
The Iran-Kuwait strike that broke Brent through $90 (ID:5121) is the wider Gulf war the Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade and tanker strikes now extend into the Red Sea.
Occurred 19 Jul 2026
Read story →
This Event
Houthi blockade cuts Saudi loadings 36%
A second strait now faces kinetic blockade, forcing Saudi crude around the Cape and lengthening every Europe-bound voyage before any barrel is lost.
Led to
Saudi crude abandons its Red Sea route
The 23 July Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade forced Saudi crude off that route and into the Suez Canal.
Occurred 24 Jul 2026
Read story →
June's calm was borrowed, not banked
The 23 July blockade reversed within a week the March-to-June bypass decline Wood Mackenzie's 24 July data documented.
Occurred 24 Jul 2026
Read story →
Bab el-Mandeb thins to 7.5 tankers a day
The 23 July Houthi blockade declaration and tanker strikes triggered the war-risk withdrawal behind the transit collapse Windward quantified on 30 July.
Occurred 29 Jul 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.