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European Energy Markets
4JUN

Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia

3 min read
10:45UTC

Vessel tracking shows Europe losing the cargo-by-cargo competition with Asian buyers, as the JKM-TTF spread collapses to near zero.

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EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu erases Europe's cost advantage for attracting flexible LNG cargoes.

Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.

Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.

Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe normally imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and West Africa, shipped across the Atlantic Ocean. Eight of those tanker ships have recently been redirected to Asia instead. This is happening because Asian countries are currently paying similar prices to Europe for gas. When there is no significant price advantage for coming to Europe, shipping companies and traders route cargoes to wherever their contracts or logistics make most sense, which right now is Asia.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cargo diversions reflect a structural feature of global LNG contracts: portfolio LNG suppliers (Shell, TotalEnergies, BP) who purchase US LNG under long-term HH-indexed contracts and resell it on the spot market optimise delivery destinations quarterly, not in real time. Once a diversion decision is made and a vessel is en route via Cape of Good Hope, that cargo is effectively committed for 6-8 weeks regardless of subsequent TTF movements.

The five US-origin cargoes in the diversions are almost certainly portfolio volumes from Shell's Sabine Pass offtake or TotalEnergies' Sabine Pass Train 5 contracts. These companies have explicit Asian portfolio commitments that take precedence over spot European sales when Asian demand is elevated.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The near-zero JKM-TTF spread removes Europe's primary market mechanism for attracting flexible spot LNG cargoes, making any further supply disruption directly additive to the storage deficit.

  • Opportunity

    A Hormuz normalisation that resumes Middle East LNG flows could widen the JKM-TTF spread in Europe's favour within weeks, attracting Atlantic cargoes back and accelerating injection season recovery.

Sources:Kpler·OilPrice.com
Mentions:Kpler →European Union →Japan →South Korea →Bloomberg →Cape of Good Hope →Prima →Qatar →Nigeria →United States →Ras Laffan Industrial City →JKM →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #1 · Europe's thinnest gas cushion since 2018

Kpler· 13 Apr 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Eight LNG cargoes diverted to Asia
The JKM-TTF spread at USD 0.10/MMBtu eliminates Europe's traditional price premium for attracting flexible cargoes, turning every spot cargo into a bidding contest.
Led to
Russian LNG ban lands 25 April, no replacement named
Atlantic LNG cargo diversions to Asia (now close to a dozen) compound the supply gap created by the Russian LNG ban with no European replacement supply named.
Occurred 15 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Marine insurers and AIS trackers covering Hormuz
Marine insurers and AIS trackers covering Hormuz
AIS data shows severe curtailment on 20 July, 479 vessels anchored, 36 dark, 123 still broadcasting inside the strait, not the closure the IRGC claims. War-risk premiums move on the unresolved CENTCOM-IRGC contest itself, since underwriters price the dispute as much as the count.
QatarEnergy
QatarEnergy
Ras Laffan has run at minimum output under force majeure into August since 9 July, a constraint already priced before this week's claim. The 17-20 July move is risk premium stacked on that standing loss, not a new physical loss at the plant.
ACER and the European Commission
ACER and the European Commission
ACER opened the REMIT reporting consultation on schedule on 16 July, giving firms to 11 September before a quarter to build systems against Regulation 648/2012. Brussels' separate silence on StromVKG state-aid clearance leaves Berlin's own capacity mechanism without legal authorisation.
EDF and French grid operator RTE
EDF and French grid operator RTE
France's discount to Germany rests on an ASNR derogation from the 28C river-cooling limit at Bugey that expires today, not on a nuclear recovery; Chooz, Golfech and Bugey restarts run to 25 July. The cheap leg holds only as long as regulators keep waiving the limit each heatwave.
German CCGT operators and grid balancers
German CCGT operators and grid balancers
German gas plants went off-merit on 20 July as the clean spark spread inverted to minus EUR 15 to minus EUR 21/MWh, sidelining the flexible capacity storage injection needs. Operators are pricing 2027-28 capacity revenue against Bundesnetzagentur's own admission that Brussels has not cleared the 9 GW StromVKG auctions.
LNG spreads desk
LNG spreads desk
The JKM-TTF arb flipped to a TTF premium of roughly USD 0.6/MMBtu on 15 July, the first time this cycle Europe has outbid Asia, yet no Atlantic cargo has rerouted west. Until a cargo actually moves, the desk reads the Hormuz premium as unconfirmed and the EUR 55 print as vulnerable to a fast reversal.