14AUG

Transformer waits stretch to four years

3 min read

10:48UTC

US transformer lead times reached three to four years by May, and only about 5 GW of the 12 GW of data-centre capacity announced for 2026 is under construction. The rest is delayed or cancelled because the hardware cannot be built fast enough.

← Back to GPUs now collateral as Nebius borrows $775m Jump to analysis ↓

IndustryDeveloping

Key takeaway

A three-to-four-year wait for transformers has stalled about half the 2026 US data-centre pipeline.

US large-power transformer lead times reached 36 to 48 months, three to four years, as of May, PV Magazine reported, up from a 128-week wait recorded only two months earlier ¹. Of the 12 GW of new US data-centre capacity announced for 2026, only about 5 GW is under active construction; the rest is delayed or cancelled on supply-chain grounds, not planning refusals.

Hardware no zoning vote can release has stalled roughly half the 2026 US pipeline. Large power transformers are bespoke builds, and the bottleneck sits in two inputs, grain-oriented electrical steel and high-voltage bushings, rather than in assembly capacity. That is what sets the multi-year clock, and it is why a fully consented, construction-ready site can still sit idle waiting to energise.

The binding constraint has rotated in under two years: capital in 2024, community consent in early 2026, and physical hardware now, each shift arriving faster than regulators can respond. Demand is migrating toward markets with existing transformer stock or captive generation, and a grey market in refurbished units is forming as buyers chase anything that ships sooner.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A large power transformer is the piece of equipment that connects a new electricity user, like a data centre, to the grid. Transformers step electricity up or down to the right voltage for transmission or use. They are custom-built, and building one takes about a year to 18 months after the order is placed. Data-centre construction has accelerated so quickly in 2025-2026 that US transformer manufacturers cannot keep up. The wait time for a large transformer has grown from about two and a half years to three or four years. This means that of the 12 GW (gigawatts) of data-centre capacity that companies announced they would build in 2026, only about 5 GW is actually under construction. The other 7 GW is waiting for hardware. This is different from the planning fight that attracts public attention: it is a factory bottleneck, not a protest or a government refusal, that is slowing down roughly half the 2026 US data-centre pipeline.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Three structural constraints underlie the 36-48 month lead time.

First, each large-power transformer is custom-wound to match a substation's local grid voltage, impedance class, and cooling requirements; a data-centre substation transformer takes 12 to 18 months to produce after the order is placed, and manufacturers will not hold units in inventory against uncertain future demand.

Second, US domestic manufacturing capacity has not kept pace with demand growth because transformer manufacturers face the same grid-connection uncertainty as data-centre developers: a manufacturing plant built to serve a demand wave that arrives two years later than forecast carries stranded-asset risk that privately held manufacturers are unwilling to absorb unilaterally.

Third, the transformer shortage interacts with the grid-connection queue to create a lock: operators cannot get a grid connection quote without knowing transformer availability, and transformer manufacturers will not accept orders without a confirmed grid connection. Operators without a cleared site are therefore stuck in a two-sided bottleneck that neither FERC's docket RM26-4-000 nor ERCOT's Batch Zero process directly resolves.

What could happen next?

Consequence
The 7 GW stall defers approximately $14bn in annual cloud revenue across US hyperscalers, creating earnings risk for the 2027-28 guidance cycles that management has not yet flagged publicly.
Medium term · Suggested
Opportunity
Domestic transformer manufacturers who can credibly commit to 18-month delivery on a 10-unit minimum order will command premium pricing; GE Vernova and ABB's US operations are positioned to capture that margin if they invest in additional winding capacity in 2026.
Medium term · Suggested
Risk
The two-sided bottleneck (no grid quote without confirmed transformer, no transformer order without grid quote) may require a federal procurement intermediary, similar to the US Strategic Transformer Reserve proposed under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, to break the deadlock.
Medium term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: The global semiconductor shortage of 2020-2022 produced a structurally identical pattern: a concentrated supply chain (TSMC plus Samsung) unable to ramp capacity fast enough for a sudden demand surge, with 52-week lead times for automotive chips causing vehicle production halts.

The analogy is precise: transformers, like advanced semiconductors, require 2-4 year capital investment cycles to add manufacturing capacity, meaning demand shocks cannot be absorbed within the time horizon of the projects they delay.

Counter-parallel: The US high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter supply chain in the 1990s faced similar lead-time inflation when the first US HVDC links were ordered, but resolved through manufacturing partnerships between ABB and US manufacturers.

The HVDC precedent suggests transformer supply can be normalised through technology licensing and joint ventures rather than pure domestic capacity addition; no equivalent programme exists for large-power transformers in the US as of mid-2026.

Of the 12 GW of US data-centre capacity announced for 2026, approximately 7 GW is stalled by supply-chain factors rather than planning refusals. At an average cost of $10-15 million per MW for a hyperscale facility, the stalled 7 GW represents $70-105bn of deferred capital deployment. Those projects remain in development and will draw their capital when hardware clears; the stall is a deferral, not a cancellation.

The 12-18 month delay translates directly to lost cloud revenue for hyperscalers. At AWS's roughly $2,000 per kW-year revenue yield on operational capacity, each GW of delayed capacity costs approximately $2bn in annual revenue. The 7 GW stall across the sector therefore represents approximately $14bn in annual cloud revenue deferred until hardware arrives.

Consensus view: EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) published its 2025 transformer supply chain assessment finding that US large-power transformer manufacturing capacity covers roughly 80 GVA of annual demand against a current order backlog equivalent to 140 GVA, a 60 GVA structural shortfall.

EPRI identifies three causes: US domestic manufacturing capacity has not grown since 2010, imported transformer lead times are also rising as European and Asian grids compete for the same global supply, and quality-standards compliance adds 6-12 months to any order cycle.

Counter-view: The State Grid Corporation of China has the world's largest transformer manufacturing capacity and has offered export supply at lead times of 12-18 months for equivalent equipment.

However, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has flagged grid-critical hardware sourced from Chinese state-owned entities as a national-security risk, and federal procurement rules restrict the use of foreign-manufactured transformers in certain grid categories. This creates a structural exclusion that keeps US buyers locked to a capacity-constrained Western supply chain.

Key tension: Whether the national-security exclusion on Chinese transformer supply is a permanent structural constraint or a negotiable policy ceiling, given that the 36-48 month lead time is itself a national-security vulnerability in a grid-hardening context.

Sources:PV Magazine USA·PV Magazine USA

Mentions:ERCOT →GE Vernova →United States →CFIUS →Samsung Electronics →TSMC →China →

First Reported In

Update #8 · Data centres build their own power plants

PV Magazine USA· 28 Jun 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Texas grid queue hits 410 GW

Transformer lead times have extended from the 128-week ERCOT baseline in April to 36-48 months reported in May, worsening the supply-chain constraint

Occurred 9 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Transformer waits stretch to four years

A multi-year wait for the giant transformers that connect data centres has decoupled planning approval from actual construction.

Different Perspectives

Antel, Uruguay's state telecom

Antel will build a $70m AI data centre in Canelones, announced after an 11-12 August Council of Ministers meeting, with construction from Q1 2027 and roughly 250 direct jobs. Uruguay is putting a sovereign AI facility on the state balance sheet rather than courting a hyperscaler to build one.

Comtel

Comtel is building a Figline Valdarno data centre inside the H2-Era Green Valley complex, powered by an 84 MW solar plant and selling waste heat to on-site farming. Co-location with generation and a heat offtaker is the model regulators elsewhere are now writing into connection terms rather than negotiating case by case.

Greg Abbott, Texas Governor

Abbott directed PUCT and ERCOT on 3 August to audit every queued data centre's ownership, incentives and water use, saying projects that fail the state's survey should lose grid access. QTS's co-chief executives welcomed the review; Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller called it too vague and wants a special legislative session instead.

Government of Gujarat

Gujarat notified a Data Centre Policy on 7 August offering capital, interest, tax and duty subsidies for projects sourcing at least 51% green power, targeting 7.5 GW against a 74 GW installed base. Where other jurisdictions priced or restricted grid access this month, Gujarat is paying developers to come instead.

Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Economics Committee

The committee gave preliminary approval on 5 August to a self-generation mandate for large power users, including data centres, with fines up to NT$750,000. It agreed the obligation in principle while leaving the megawatt threshold that defines its reach to later implementing regulation.

Australian Energy Market Commission

AEMC advised ministers on 5 August that data centres should surrender renewable certificates against actual consumption, prove new demand with new firm capacity, and register as market participants. The advice would turn passive customers into obligated participants inside the market's dispatch and settlement machinery, ahead of an access-standards determination due in late October.