Kpler vessel tracking data shows eight Atlantic LNG cargoes (five US-origin, three Nigerian) have been diverted from Europe to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope since the conflict began in late February. EU weekly LNG imports fell 15% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result.
Behind the diversions sits the JKM-TTF spread, the gap between Asian spot LNG and the European benchmark. It narrowed to $0.10/MMBtu in early April, effectively zero. When the spread was positive, Europe could outbid Asia for flexible cargoes; at parity, shippers route to whichever buyer offers better terms on a cargo-by-cargo basis. US LNG still accounts for 58% of EU LNG imports under long-term contracts, but spot volumes follow the Asian premium.
Kpler's broader supply arithmetic is tight. Alternative sources cover under two million of the monthly shortfall. That gap persists until Ras Laffan repairs advance or new US export capacity comes online, Europe competes for a shrinking pool of flexible supply.
