JKM

The Japan Korea Marker (JKM) is the benchmark price assessed daily by S&P Global Platts for spot LNG delivered to Northeast Asian ports, primarily Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan, on a DES (delivered ex-ship) basis. Launched in 2009 to bring price transparency to a market that was almost entirely long-term and oil-indexed, JKM has since become the reference price for a growing share of physical spot cargoes and financial derivatives, including JKM swaps and futures traded on CME and ICE. It is the Asian counterpart to Europe's TTF hub price, and the two together define the global LNG arbitrage window.

The JKM-TTF spread is the single most-watched signal for inter-basin cargo allocation. When JKM trades at a significant premium to TTF, flexible Atlantic LNG cargoes, typically US-origin or West African, route east; when TTF is above JKM, cargoes flow to Europe. In early April 2026 the spread compressed to USD 0.10/MMBtu, effectively eliminating Asia's price advantage and triggering eight Atlantic cargo diversions to Europe. By late April, with the Strait of Hormuz closed to Qatari and UAE LNG, JKM recovered to the USD 16.55/MMBtu range while TTF lagged near EUR 41-42/MWh, re-routing flexible cargoes east. The spread then compressed to USD 2.30/MMBtu in early May, USD 1.225/MMBtu by 1 June, before widening again to USD 2.368/MMBtu by 11 June as European storage injections held steady and the CEGH-TTF basis narrowed.

Because JKM is a market benchmark rather than a physical entity, it does not belong to any single country or shipper. Its movements Ripple across every LNG-importing region: a rising JKM tightens European supply by pulling cargoes east; a falling JKM risks European storage under-fill if Atlantic supply has already been committed elsewhere. During the 2026 Hormuz crisis JKM functioned as the real-time barometer of Middle East supply disruption, making it a key cross-topic indicator across European energy markets and Iran-conflict coverage.

By late June 2026, JKM compressed to near-parity with TTF at around USD 11.1/MMBtu, with TTF briefly overtaking it on 30 June. QatarEnergy's two missile-destroyed LNG trains remained offline with no restart before mid-July, capping the Asian supply recovery; European gas also settled Q2 more than 14% lower, depressing prompt TTF into the low EUR 40s and narrowing the freight-adjusted diversion threshold.

The 21 June Ras Laffan blast was confirmed as a strike on the domestic Barzan gas facility, leaving the LNG export trains unaffected. Despite the arb closing to near zero and TTF briefly exceeding JKM, no named Atlantic cargo redirection to European berths was confirmed as of 30 June. Eliminating Asia's pull does not automatically translate into a European supply signal until a ship actually turns.

The arb flipped sign outright on 15 July: JKM settled at USD 16.81/MMBtu against a TTF-equivalent of roughly USD 17.4/MMBtu, putting TTF above the JKM-equivalent for the first time this cycle and reversing a USD 1.59 JKM premium recorded as recently as 5 July. As with the late-June near-parity episode, the sign flip alone has not moved physical cargoes: no Atlantic vessel has been confirmed rerouting west on the new spread, underlining that a diversion needs the gap to hold long enough, and wide enough after freight costs, to justify rechartering a ship already committed east.