Institute for the Study of War

In its 12 September assessment, the Institute for the Study of War judged that Ukraine had erased Russia's position north of Lyman. It cited Russian military bloggers conceding the ground, but said no Independent primary source had confirmed the result.

That caution is central to the Institute's role. On 18 July, it found no evidence that Russian troops had entered five settlements listed by General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov. The finding recorded an absence of corroboration, rather than claiming a geolocated refutation.

On 10 September, the Institute assessed that Russia was more likely to use rolling call-ups than a single mass mobilisation. The judgement followed a reported request for 800,000 additional troops, which Ukraine's military intelligence said could not be met in one intake.

The assessment places recruitment within a wider measure of battlefield pressure. On 23 June, the Institute described eastern Ukraine's front as barely shifted and found neither side able to secure a decisive breakthrough. Its work therefore links force generation to a war measured in sustained attrition and limited territorial movement.