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Institute for the Study of War
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Institute for the Study of War

Washington think tank publishing daily open-source battlefield assessments on Ukraine and Iran conflicts since 2007.

A Washington think tank publishing daily open-source battlefield assessments on Ukraine and Iran since 2007, whose control maps and casualty cross-checks are cited by Western governments, military staff and journalists across both wars.

Last refreshed: 3 August 2026 · Appears in 3 active topics

Key Question

How many consecutive net-loss weeks has ISW now documented for Russia, and does the front hold?

Timeline for Institute for the Study of War

#26 1 Aug

Relayed an unconfirmed Russian-source claim of an explosion at Chayko's birthday party

Russia-Ukraine War 2026: ISW relays an unconfirmed Moscow blast
#26 1 Aug

Published July's monthly campaign assessment

Russia-Ukraine War 2026: Russia fired most, gained least in July
View full timeline →

Background

Founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan Washington think tank producing daily battlefield assessments, interactive control maps and order-of-battle analysis on the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts. It publishes jointly with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, including a daily Iran Update alongside its Ukraine coverage.

Its core method is cross-checking official claims, Russian, Iranian, American or otherwise, against geolocated footage and open-source reporting, which is why its assessments routinely contradict the government whose claims it is checking: it has found no evidence behind Russian battlefield claims, read Iranian diplomatic gestures as cover narratives, and relayed unconfirmed Russian-source reports without endorsing them.

Some Western commentators characterise its institutional stance as hawkish, and Russian state media dismisses it as a Western propaganda outlet. Its figures nonetheless feature regularly in parliamentary and congressional debates on military aid and in Western government assessments of both wars.

Common Questions

Reference

How does ISW differ from the Harvard Belfer Center on Ukraine analysis?
ISW produces the underlying daily battlefield data: event logs, control maps, and order-of-battle. The Harvard Belfer Center's Russia Matters project synthesises ISW's raw data into longer-run trend analysis. The two organisations collaborated directly on the February-March 2026 territorial assessment.Source: ISW / Harvard Belfer Center
Is ISW reliable for Ukraine war reporting?
ISW is widely cited by Western governments, military staffs, and major news outlets as a primary source for battlefield analysis. Russia disputes its findings, calling it a Western-funded propaganda outlet. ISW’s assessments are corroborated by Ukrainian General Staff data and, in the 2026 territorial study, by the Harvard Belfer Center.Source: ISW
Does ISW analyse the Iran conflict as well as Ukraine?
Yes, jointly with the Critical Threats Project, applying the same daily open-source assessment methodology it uses for the Russia-Ukraine war.
Is the Institute for the Study of War politically biased?
ISW describes itself as non-partisan, though some Western commentators characterise its institutional stance as hawkish. Its raw battlefield data is nonetheless treated as a primary independent reference by Western governments and militaries.
What is the Institute for the Study of War?
ISW is a Washington, D.c.-based non-partisan defence research organisation founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan. It publishes daily battlefield assessments of the Russia-Ukraine war used by Western governments and military staffs.Source: ISW
Who founded the Institute for the Study of War?
ISW was founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan, a military historian and Foreign Policy analyst. It is based in Washington, D.c., and has become the primary external reference for tracking the Russia-Ukraine war.Source: ISW

Recently resolved

Did ISW confirm Russia’s spring 2026 offensive?
Yes. In March 2026 ISW assessed that Russia’s spring-summer offensive was under way, corroborating Ukrainian General Staff data showing 619 ground attacks over four days from 17 to 20 March, with 163 directed at the Pokrovsk axis alone.Source: ISW / Syrskyi briefing
What did ISW find about Russian territorial gains in early 2026?
ISW data, compiled with the Harvard Belfer Center, showed Russia’s advance rate had decelerated fivefold between mid-2025 and February 2026, from 130-150 sq km per week to 33-50 sq km per week. Russia recorded its first sustained net territorial loss since 2023 in the period 17 February to 17 March 2026.Source: ISW / Harvard Belfer Center
Has Russia captured Kostiantynivka?
No. ISW's July 2026 roll-up still lists Kostiantynivka as unseized, Russia's main unmet effort on the eastern front.Source: Institute for the Study of War
How much territory did Russia gain in July 2026?
ISW confirmed just 37.85 sq km of Russian ground taken in July 2026 (121.56 sq km including infiltration), down from 455.74 sq km in July 2025, even as Russia fired a record 376 missiles and suffered its worst monthly casualty toll of the year at 42,860.Source: Institute for the Study of War
What is the casualty ratio at Kostiantynivka?
ISW assessed the loss ratio at three Ukrainian dead for every 53 Russian, meaning the fortress-city defence keeps imposing a steep cost on each Russian push.Source: ISW
Has the Ukraine war front line stopped moving?
ISW judged the roughly 1,000km front essentially static on 22 July 2026, with net Russian territorial gains running at a fraction of the previous year's pace.Source: ISW
What has ISW said about Iran's IRGC thanking Jordan?
ISW assessed on 20 July 2026 that the IRGC's public thanks to Jordan for intelligence support was likely a cover narrative, a reading Jordan has neither confirmed nor denied.Source: event
Did ISW report North Korean weapons in Ukraine in 2026?
On 7 June 2026, ISW reported the first sighting of North Korean Type-75 107mm MLRS mounted on Russian unmanned ground vehicles in the Kharkiv direction, the first confirmed combat integration of DPRK rocket artillery on an autonomous platform.Source: ISW
How accurate are ISW's Russia-Ukraine war maps?
In April 2026, ISW verified ~340 km² of Russian gains against Gerasimov's claimed 1,700 km², documenting a 5:1 exaggeration ratio in Russian battlefield claims. ISW's assessments are treated as the external ground-truth reference by Western governments.Source: ISW
Source Material