Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
15MAR

Ukraine takes 460 sq km in south

1 min read
06:46UTC

Ukrainian forces reclaimed 460 square kilometres in Zaporizhzhia — the first net territorial gain since 2023 — forcing Russia to pull elite units from its Donetsk offensive.

ConflictAssessed

Ukrainian forces advanced 10–12 km in two drives through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reclaiming 460 sq km and eight settlements since late January 1. The Institute for the Study of War assessed these counterattacks have "significantly complicated Russia's plans" for a spring offensive toward Orikhiv 2.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported 300–400 sq km captured during February . The updated figure suggests continued momentum into March. This is Ukraine's first net territorial gain since the 2023 counteroffensive failed to breach Russian defensive lines in the same Zaporizhzhia sector — a failure that cost the previous commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, his post.

The advance forced a redeployment. Russia moved elite airborne and naval infantry from the Donetsk axis — where it was pressing toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — to contain the southern push 3. Every battalion moved south is one not advancing on Kostiantynivka. Moscow is now sustaining three simultaneous operations: Donetsk, the Sumy–Kharkiv buffer zone , and a defensive posture in Zaporizhzhia.

The Moscow Times described the front on 3 March as "unstable equilibrium" 4. Whether Ukraine can hold these gains through the spring thaw — when mud restricts armoured movement and complicates resupply — will determine if the Zaporizhzhia sector becomes a lasting salient or a temporary bulge.

First Reported In

Update #4 · Ukraine pivots to drone exporter

RBC· 15 Mar 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
The B9+Nordic Bucharest joint statement on 13 May reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty within internationally recognised borders and backed NATO eastern flank reinforcement; the summit accepted Zelenskyy's bilateral drone deal proposal as a structural alternative to the stalled US export approval pathway, treating it as a European defence architecture question rather than aid delivery.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi is still negotiating a sixth ZNPP repair ceasefire with no agreement after 50 days of 750 kV line disconnection; the 3 May ERCL drone strike that destroyed environmental monitoring equipment represents a qualitative escalation in infrastructure degradation that the IAEA has documented but cannot compel either party to halt.
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Magyar's incoming foreign minister pledged on 12 May that Hungary will stop abusing EU veto rights; the pledge is a statement of intent rather than a binding legal commitment, and Magyar's MEPs voted against the €90 billion loan as recently as April, while a planned referendum on Ukraine's EU accession preserves a downstream blocking lever.
EU Council and European Commission
EU Council and European Commission
The Magyar cabinet formation on 12 May removes the Hungary veto that had blocked the €9.1 billion first tranche since February; the Commission is now coordinating the three-document disbursement package for an early-June vote. The structural blocker is gone; the disbursement question is now scheduling, not politics.
Donald Trump / White House
Donald Trump / White House
Trump announced a 9-11 May three-day ceasefire with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange attached, then called peace 'getting very close' on 11-13 May while Russia's 800-drone barrage was under way; his public framing adopted Russian diplomatic language without securing any Russian operational concession or verifying the exchange was agreed.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin told reporters on 9 May the war is 'coming to an end' while Peskov confirmed on 13 May that territorial demands are unchanged and Russia requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from all four annexed regions; the verbal accommodation costs Moscow nothing and conditions any summit on a pre-finalised treaty Kyiv cannot accept.