EIA
US Energy Information Administration; publishes weekly petroleum status reports and the monthly STEO price forecasts.
On 9 September, EIA moved its estimate for Middle East oil production recovery to mid-2027 after raising expected fourth-quarter shut-ins to 5.7 million barrels a day.
Last refreshed: 22 September 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics
Does the first US distillate build in weeks signal the ICE Gasoil crack has peaked?
Timeline for EIA
Published the weekly retail diesel and petrol averages
Iran Conflict 2026: Supertanker hire passes $1.2m a dayRaised its Middle East shut-in forecast and pushed recovery to 2027
Iran Conflict 2026: Brent spikes on the strike, then gives it backRaised the Q4 2026 shut-in forecast and pushed the recovery date to Q2 2027
Iran Conflict 2026: EIA pushes oil recovery into 2027Reported a 7.2 million barrel crude stock draw for the week to 24 July
European Oil Markets: US crude drew 7.2mb as WTI round-trippedReported the first US crude stock build in this desk's tracking window
European Oil Markets: US crude posts first build since MayBackground
EIA is the US Energy Information Administration, the statistical Arm of the US Department of Energy. It publishes the Weekly Petroleum Status Report and the Short-Term Energy Outlook, providing regular measures of petroleum inventories, refinery activity, production and projected market conditions. Its June outlook cut its 2026 global oil-demand forecast by 1.3 million barrels a day.
The agency was established in 1977 and is based in Washington DC. Its weekly reports give a dated view of US crude, petrol and distillate stocks, while its monthly outlook turns observed supply and demand data into forecasts. On 29 July, its report recorded crude stocks at 404.5 million barrels after a 7.2 million-barrel weekly draw.
That combination makes EIA a reference point for policymakers, traders and refiners assessing the US market and its links to global oil supply.
EIA delayed the recovery forecast
On 9 September, EIA raised its estimate of Middle East production shut in during the fourth quarter from 4.2 million to 5.7 million barrels a day. It moved the expected recovery point to mid-2027.
For EIA, the revision showed the weight carried by its monthly outlook when disruption is still being priced. The agency changed its supply estimate without a newly reported physical loss, making the forecast itself a material marker of how long it expected the regional constraint to last.
EIA tracked prolonged crude depletion
On 17 June, EIA reported the eighth consecutive weekly US crude-stock draw, leaving commercial inventories at 418.2 million barrels. Refinery utilisation reached 96.7%, while distillate stocks stood 13% below their five-year average.
Its weekly series gave markets a common measure of whether hard-running US refineries were restoring supply. By 22 July, EIA reported the first crude build since May, a 2.0 million-barrel increase, while the distillate shortfall narrowed to 10%. The sequence illustrates why the report is watched as a recurring inventory signal rather than as a single verdict on demand.
Reference
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