Michael P. McDonald
University of Florida political scientist who tracks US turnout and early voting.
Michael McDonald is the main check on reading early-vote records as turnout surges. Georgia's 188,667 in-person ballots on 13 October 2026, a midterm first-day record, are the latest test of his case that records mostly show when people vote.
Last refreshed: 18 October 2026
Timeline for Michael P. McDonald
Mentioned in: Georgia sets a midterm early-vote record
US Midterms 2026Background
Michael McDonald's tracking is the reference point whenever early-vote records fall. Georgians cast 188,667 in-person ballots on 13 October, a record for a midterm opening day, and nearly 365,000 had voted two days later. McDonald has argued for years that such records mostly reflect a shift in when people vote, not how many.
McDonald is a professor of political Science at the University of Florida. He has tracked early voting since 2008 through the United States Elections Project, and in 2023 moved that work to the university's Election Lab. He previously taught at George Mason University.
His work matters because early totals arrive weeks before the result and invite over-reading. In a state such as Georgia, which does not register voters by party, a raw count cannot show who leads.
Who is Michael McDonald of the University of Florida?
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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 18 October 2026. Editorial standards.