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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

SLF's final $43.9m: 7 of 10 targets won

3 min read
18:10UTC

The Senate Leadership Fund reported about $43.9m of spending from 27 October to 1 November, almost all against Democrats; seven of the ten it targeted won.

PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

SLF spent about $43.9m in its final week, and seven of its ten targets won.

The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leaders, reported about $43.9m of independent expenditures from 27 October to 1 November, on Lowdown's sum of its Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings⁠1. Independent expenditures are spending a group may not plan with any campaign. Almost all of it attacked Democrats. SLF had entered the final stretch with $88.42m in cash, 2.7 times that of Senate Majority PAC, its Democratic counterpart.

Seven of the ten Democrats it targeted that week won on network projections. Its largest line, $12.37m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, followed $12.07m the week before. It added $7.65m against Josh Turek in Iowa from 27 to 30 October, $5.50m of it on media placed on 27 October alone⁠2, $4.91m against Adam Hamilton in Kansas, $4.85m against Troy Jackson in Maine, $4.60m against Annie Andrews in South Carolina after $4.06m earlier, $1.47m against Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and $1.20m against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

The one target who lost was in Nebraska: SLF spent $2.40m against independent Dan Osborn, whom Senator Pete Ricketts beat 50.4% to 43.6%⁠3. Two targets remain uncalled, Mary Peltola ($1.80m) and Scott Colom ($0.67m). Lines supporting Republicans were small: $0.59m for Jon Husted and $0.45m for Ashley Hinson.

Spending against a winner does not prove the money moved nothing. In a swing this size, nobody can show what the margins would have been without it. The totals may also rise as 24-hour reports for 1 to 3 November are processed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A super PAC is a US political group that can raise and spend unlimited money on elections, as long as it does not plan its spending with a candidate's campaign. The Senate Leadership Fund is the largest such group on the Republican side of Senate races. In the last week before polling day it reported about $43.9m of spending, nearly all on adverts against Democratic candidates. Most of those Democrats won anyway. That does not prove the money had no effect: nobody can say what the margins would have been without it.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Republican Senate strategy in 2026 ran through outside groups rather than the party committee. The NRSC spent nothing with its nominees in seven Senate races in early October, leaving SLF and its state-named affiliates to carry those seats.

SLF put its largest sums into the final fortnight. Its biggest single target, Sherrod Brown, drew $12.07m in the week to 26 October and $12.37m more in the final week, against a candidate who had outraised his opponent six to one.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    The Republican super PAC's cash advantage sat alongside defeats for its side in seven of its ten final-week target races; the filings cannot show what the margins would have been without the spending.

  • Risk

    Totals may rise when 24-hour reports for 1 to 3 November are processed.

First Reported In

Update #23 · Democrats take the Senate and the House

NBC News· 5 Nov 2026
Read original →
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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.