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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

Raters tip Ohio governor's race to Acton

2 min read
18:10UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report moved Ohio's governor's race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton to Lean Democrat on 22 and 23 October, as SLF filed $12.07m against Sherrod Brown.

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PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Two forecasters moved Ohio's governor's race to Lean Democrat as SLF spent $12.07m in the Senate race.

Sabato's Crystal Ball on 22 October and the Cook Political Report a day later both moved Ohio's governor's race to Lean Democrat⁠1. The contest pits Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican, against Amy Acton, the Democrat. Cook wrote that Ramaswamy's "deeply personal attack ad" against Acton confirmed "the race is slipping away from him", with possible "collateral damage for fellow Republicans"⁠2. Forecasters grade races Solid, Likely, Lean or Toss Up.

That damage, if it comes, would land on the Senate race on the same ballot. Republican-side groups filed $17.03m in Ohio's Senate race in reports received from 22 to 26 October, against $8.21m for Democrats⁠3. The Senate Leadership Fund's share was $12.51m, $12.07m of it against Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator, after $13.74m against him in the week before. Across October filings the two sides are close, $93.60m Republican to $91.11m Democratic.

The party committees tilt the other way. The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) spent $4.76m with Brown from 1 to 14 October⁠4; the National Republican Senatorial Committee spent $2.05m with Jon Husted, the Republican senator Brown is challenging, down from $11.81m in September⁠5. Lower Costs Now has added $7.52m against Husted.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ohio votes on 3 November for both a governor and a senator. For governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state's former health director. Two leading race-rating services now say Acton has the edge. For the Senate, Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Senate super PAC, has spent heavily against Brown in the last week. Overall October spending on the two sides is close.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Ohio holds a special Senate election this year because JD Vance left the Senate to become Vice-President, and Governor Mike DeWine appointed Jon Husted to the seat in January 2025. That puts both statewide races on one ballot.

Brown lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024, so he runs as a former senator with high name recognition but a recent defeat in the state.

Sources:Federal Election Commission·Federal Election Commission·Federal Election Commission
Mentions:Cook Political Report →Sabato's Crystal Ball →Vivek Ramaswamy →Amy Acton →Ohio →Senate Leadership Fund →Senator Sherrod Brown →Jon Husted →DSCC →National Republican Senatorial Committee →Lower Costs Now →JD Vance →Bernie Moreno →Mike DeWine →US Senate →Democratic Party →
First Reported In

Update #22 · Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

Federal Election Commission· 27 Oct 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
SLF opens a $4.06m South Carolina front
SLF added $12.07m against Sherrod Brown after leading its 15 to 21 October filings with $13.74m against him.
Occurred 21 Oct 2026
Read story →
This Event
Raters tip Ohio governor's race to Acton
Two forecasters now favour the Democrat for Ohio governor, while SLF spent $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in the Senate race on the same ballot.
Led to
SLF's final $43.9m: 7 of 10 targets won
SLF followed $12.07m against Sherrod Brown with a further $12.37m.
Occurred 1 Nov 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
University of Florida Election Lab
University of Florida Election Lab
The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.
Senator John Thune
Senator John Thune
Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.
Judge David O. Carter
Judge David O. Carter
Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.