James Talarico beat Ken Paxton for Texas's Senate seat by 5,444,982 votes to 4,249,373, 55.06% to 42.97%, on the Texas Secretary of State's unofficial feed with all 254 counties reporting1. Paxton, who ousted Senator John Cornyn in the May runoff, conceded before midnight and said he would be "praying" for Talarico2. Talarico won the early vote, cast in person or by post before polling day, by 1,164,807, and the rest of the count by about 31,000, on Lowdown's arithmetic.
The swing ran down the ballot. Gina Hinojosa unseated Governor Greg Abbott, 52.8% to 45.67% on the state feed3, in a flip NBC projected4. Democrats lead every other statewide race on the feed: Vikki Goodwin has 51.73% against Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick's 45.63%, Nathan Johnson leads Mayes Middleton for attorney general, and Maggie Ellis has 52.45% against Chief Justice Jimmy Blacklock for the top seat on the Supreme Court of Texas. Democrats also lead for three more Supreme Court seats and three on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, the state's highest criminal court. Texas elects its judges on party tickets, so the swing reached the bench.
The House races ran on PlanC2333, the map the Supreme Court cleared for 2026 in April. On it, Bobby Pulido has 62.32% against Representative Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District, and Democrats also lead in the 23rd, 9th and 35th. NBC projected the 27th for Representative Michael Cloud5, who leads by 6,540 votes on the state feed.
The money behind Paxton ran through super political action committees (PACs), which may raise and spend without limit but may not co-ordinate with a campaign, so no filing gives one total. CBS put Elon Musk's spending to boost Paxton at "more than $150 million"6; CNBC cited $224m tied to Musk7. The filings Lowdown can trace show Musk giving $158m to the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) in September, and SLF passing matching sums to Texas PAC a day after each gift. The Federal Election Commission (FEC)'s processed donor data shows $121.81m from Musk in gifts of $100,000 or more this cycle, before those September cheques8, so CBS's figure fits the filings and CNBC's could not be matched to them.
