12OCT

Russia loses 179 soldiers per square km

2 min read

10:59UTC

Mykhailo Fedorov calculated that Russian forces were suffering 179 losses per square kilometre of advance in 2026, nearly three times the 67 per sq km in 2025. Mediazona's running database recorded verified dates of death for 202,000 Russian soldiers as of 22 May.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Russia is paying three soldiers per kilometre for every one it paid in 2025, while simultaneously losing ground.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, calculated that Russian forces are suffering 179 losses per square kilometre of advance in 2026, against 67 in the same window of 2025. The defence budget of 13.5 trillion rubles was set when advance rates were five times higher; Russia is now paying 2.7 times more in personnel per unit of territory than the budget contemplated.

Mediazona offers the most reliable open-source count, tracking named deaths through obituaries, social media and probate records. Its 202,000 figure is verified individual cases with dates. The Probate Registry statistical extrapolation, published 9 May, puts total male deaths aged 18-59 through end-2025 at 352,000.

The gap between 202,000 confirmed and 352,000 statistical reflects how effectively Russia's casualty suppression works. Compensation systems pay families without requiring public registration, so they are incentivised not to publicise deaths. Mediazona treats its 202,000 figure as a floor that the true toll exceeds, not a ceiling.

At 179 losses per sq km, Russia would need to advance roughly 6 sq km a day to sustain its 2025 casualty rate per unit of time. The 100 sq mi loss over four weeks means it is moving the other way.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

In 2025, Russia lost roughly 67 soldiers for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory it captured. In 2026, that figure has risen to 179 soldiers per square kilometre, nearly three times as many. And unlike in 2025, Russia is now losing ground rather than gaining it. An independent Russian media outlet working from obituaries and public records has confirmed the dates of death for 202,000 Russian soldiers. A separate statistical study puts the real total of Russian men killed since the invasion started through end-2025 at around 352,000. These numbers explain why Russia is turning to its most advanced weapons: the conventional ground war is becoming too expensive in lives and money to sustain.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Russia's defence budget, set at 2025 attrition assumptions, is structurally underfunded for 2026 casualty consumption rates.

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

Russian oil and gas revenues fell roughly 32% year-on-year in January 2026, removing the windfall buffer that funded 2022-2024 operations. The 2026 defence budget assumed Urals crude at approximately $60-65 per barrel; actual prices have been below that for much of the year despite the Iran war premium.

At 179 losses per sq km and the current advance rate, the human capital cost per square kilometre is roughly 2.7 times higher than the budget model assumed. Russia cannot fund a summer offensive at 2026 attrition rates without either a significant drawdown of NWF liquid assets or emergency borrowing that would push the deficit well above the 4.6 trillion ruble Q1 level.

Consensus view: SIPRI's Julian Cooper and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy both assess Russia's tripled per-kilometre attrition rate as a fiscal breaking point: the 2026 defence budget of 13.5 trillion rubles was set when personnel losses per sq km were 67.

At 179, Russia is burning through manpower three times faster per unit of territorial gain, and the National Wealth Fund's liquid reserves of 3.6 trillion rubles provide roughly six months of deficit cover at Q1 overshoot rates.

Counter-view: Mediazona's own analysts caution against treating 202,000 confirmed named deaths as a ceiling. The gap between that figure and the 352,000 statistical estimate from the Probate Registry methodology suggests Russia's casualty-suppression apparatus remains functional. If the true toll is closer to 352,000, the per-sq-km attrition rate in 2026 is even higher than the 179 figure, and Russian commanders may be understating losses to brigade command to avoid relief.

Key tension: Whether Russia can sustain the current attrition rate through summer 2026 by drawing on the remaining conscript and contract volunteer pool, or whether the 179-per-sq-km rate reflects a manpower shortage that will force a reduction in assault tempo before winter.

Sources:Al Jazeera·Mediazona

Mentions:Mediazona →Russia →Ukraine →Probate Registry →SIPRI →Julian Cooper →Russian forces →Mykhailo Fedorov →

First Reported In

Update #18 · Oreshnik doubles as Russia's front collapses

Al Jazeera· 1 Jun 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Russia loses 179 soldiers per square km

Tripled per-kilometre attrition is the fiscal and operational mechanism behind Russia's front-line collapse; the defence budget was calibrated on 2025 advance rates and cannot sustain 2026 casualty consumption per unit of territory.

Led to

Russia fires first dual Oreshnik salvo

Tripled attrition cost combined with territorial retreat is the fiscal driver behind Russia's substitution of IRBM strikes for ground advance.

Occurred 24 May 2026

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Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.

India's Ministry of External Affairs

After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.

Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.

Donald Trump and the US Treasury

The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.

Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.