Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Paris and London convene forty nations

4 min read
10:59UTC

Lowdown Newsroom

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Europe is drafting the Hormuz framework Washington never put on paper.

Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer will chair a leaders' video conference on Friday of nations willing to contribute to 'a purely defensive multilateral mission' to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once security conditions permit. The Elysée announcement, published on Tuesday, confirmed senior diplomats would hold a preparatory call on Thursday and that over forty nations were expected to participate. The conference is the operational successor to the earlier UK-convened Hormuz coordination meeting.

The difference is what is being drafted. At the earlier meeting the coalition agreed to coordinate. On Friday it plans to design a physical mission, command structure, and rules of engagement for a post-war passage framework. In international maritime law, the first credible multilateral framework tends to hold. Subsequent proposals negotiate against it rather than replacing it. Europe's advantage is written documents where the United States has only posts.

The US blockade has been running for several days on a social-media post and a self-generated CENTCOM operational order. The instrument-free record The White House's own presidential-actions page confirmed this week is what gives Paris and London space to hold the pen. With no American presidential text on record, any framework published on Friday becomes the document any post-war passage arrangement must reference. The Anglo-French summit is not framed as a challenge to Washington; it does not need to be. Roughly eighty per cent of the named nations host US bases, which complicates formal opposition to the blockade, but does not prevent them signing a post-war framework the United States has not written.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

France and the UK have invited more than 40 countries to a video conference on Friday to plan what happens at the strait of Hormuz after the war ends. the strait is a 33-kilometre-wide waterway between Iran and the Arabian peninsula, and about 20 per cent of the world's oil normally passes through it. Right now the US is running a blockade there; but it has never written down the formal rules on paper. The idea is: if no one writes the rules, whoever writes them first gets to set the terms. Europe is trying to be that writer. The conference would design a security mission; which countries contribute ships, what those ships are allowed to do, and under what legal authority. If it succeeds, the post-war Hormuz rules will have been written in Paris and London, not Washington.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The summit's genesis is the US instrument gap. Europe cannot negotiate a post-war passage regime against a text that does not exist. The blockade, the ceasefire, and the toll list are all Truth Social posts; no signed American instrument describes what a post-war Hormuz looks like from Washington's perspective.

The 2 April UK-led coordination meeting established that Europe had the political will but not the framework. The 17 April summit converts political will into a draft mission document; command structure, rules of engagement, force contributions; before the ceasefire window closes on 22 April. Europe is not challenging Washington; it is filling a governance vacuum Washington has not moved to fill.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    If the summit produces operational rules of engagement, Europe holds the pen on post-war Hormuz governance regardless of US diplomatic position

    Short term · 0.7
  • Risk

    Italy's parallel bilateral Gulf trip and France's simultaneous flag-state protest erode the claim that Europe speaks with a unified voice, weakening the framework's negotiating weight

    Immediate · 0.8
  • Opportunity

    A UNCLOS-compatible multilateral mandate gives Tehran a non-US framework to negotiate passage terms against, potentially breaking the Islamabad deadlock by providing an alternative interlocutor

    Medium term · 0.65
First Reported In

Update #69 · Cooper joins the instrument gap

Al-Monitor (Elysée)· 15 Apr 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.