12OCT

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

2 min read

10:59UTC

Terminal stocks funded the marginal molecule into pipeline storage as Atlantic cargoes kept missing the basin.

← Back to US licenses Russian diesel and turns on Kyiv Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Terminal stocks are now the marginal supplier; the buffer is finite and shrinking.

Gas Infrastructure Europe's ALSI (Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory, the terminal-stocks companion to AGSI+) showed aggregate EU terminal inventory falling from 5,929 thousand tonnes on 10 April to 5,766 thousand tonnes on 13 April, a draw of 163 kt over three days⁠¹. Daily send-out averaged 4,348 GWh, with no evident new cargo arrivals landing in the window.

Around a dozen Atlantic LNG cargoes had already diverted to Asia since early March, compressing the JKM-TTF spread to near parity and removing the arbitrage that would ordinarily pull reload cargoes back into European terminals. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan force majeure takes out the other direction of flexible supply. With Atlantic inflow thin and Qatari inflow blocked, terminal buffer is the only variable left, and it is being drawn at roughly 50 kt per day to keep pipeline send-out steady.

That dynamic has a short runway. ALSI carries finite stock, and drawing it during peak reload season means Europe enters May with a thinner LNG cushion against any late-April supply shock. With the Russian LNG cutoff arriving on 25 April and no replacement supply publicly named, the buffer question becomes a May question rather than a June one.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

LNG, Liquefied Natural Gas, arrives at European ports as a super-cooled liquid in specialised tankers. It is stored at coastal terminals before being sent inland through pipelines as regular gas. Think of the terminals as the first link in the chain between ships arriving from Qatar, the US, or Nigeria, and the heating systems of European homes. Between 10 and 13 April, EU terminals collectively drew down their stocks by 163,000 tonnes in three days, and no new tankers appear to have docked to refill them. That is because LNG ships have been diverting from Europe to Asia, where buyers are paying slightly more. European terminals were funding their pipeline obligations by drawing on reserves, not new deliveries.

What could happen next?

Risk
The Russian LNG ban on 25 April removes a portion of the terminal replenishment flow while injection season demand for send-out rises, accelerating the terminal drawdown rate beyond the current 54 kt/day.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

At 4,348 GWh/day send-out and 5,766 kt inventory, EU terminals hold approximately 8.4 days of buffer. A 163 kt three-day drawdown represents a daily depletion rate of 54 kt without replacement. At that rate, terminals would fall below operational minimums (roughly 3,000 kt) in approximately 52 days if no new cargoes arrived, which is implausible but illustrates the directional pressure.

The structural constraint is the JKM-TTF spread: at $0.10/MMBtu parity, no flexible cargo operator has a price incentive to choose Europe over Asia. A €42/MWh TTF translates to roughly $15.4/MMBtu, while Japanese LNG spot was trading at approximately $15.5/MMBtu. The 10-cent spread is below the routing cost differential between Atlantic-to-Europe and Cape-of-Good-Hope-to-Japan, making Europe effectively uncompetitive for swing cargoes until TTF rises or Asian demand softens.

Consensus view: S&P Global Commodity Insights LNG analysts assess that a three-day terminal drawdown with no evident new cargo arrivals is the signature of a supply hiatus, not a demand surge. When the JKM-TTF spread narrowed to $0.10/MMBtu, US and Nigerian operators holding flexible cargoes diverted to Asia, where committed long-term offtakers were paying premiums to recover from Hormuz supply loss.

Counter-view: GIIGNL (the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers) notes that European terminal operators routinely hold 5-7 days of send-out buffer above operational minimums, and 5,766 kt represents roughly 8 days of current send-out. The terminal estate is not in distress; it is operating at the bottom of its working range.

Key tension: Whether the 8-day buffer is adequate once the Russian LNG ban removes approximately 17 bcm per year from 25 April, cutting the replenishment flow precisely when injection season demand for send-out is rising.

Sources:Gas Infrastructure Europe

Mentions:GIE ALSI →European Union →Liquefied Natural Gas →QatarEnergy →Qatar →TTF →JKM →Nigeria →Russia →Ras Laffan Industrial City →GIE AGSI+ →Russian LNG short-term contract ban →Russian LNG →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

Gas Infrastructure Europe· 15 Apr 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

Europe is eating its LNG savings to feed a pipeline system that has not yet flipped to injection.

Led to

Hormuz: 19 transits, no LNG; ALSI bounce was Atlantic

The ALSI terminal inventory on 25 April (5,071 kt) is 696 kt below the 13 April baseline tracked in ID:2423, confirming the Hormuz-driven drawdown continues.

Occurred 25 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.

India's Ministry of External Affairs

After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.

Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.

Donald Trump and the US Treasury

The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.

Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.