16JUN

ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens

3 min read

10:25UTC

ISW assessed Russia net-lost about 91 square miles in the four weeks to 9 June as its offensive stalled, while Meduza flagged the Dobropillia sector as Moscow's new pressure point in western Donetsk.

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ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

Russia is losing ground on net yet probing Dobropillia to flank Ukraine's main fortress city.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington think tank that publishes daily battlefield assessments, found Russia net-lost about 91 square miles in the four weeks to 9 June ¹. A net loss means Ukrainian gains and Russian withdrawals outweighed Russian advances over the period. The figure continues a stall ISW first flagged when it logged a roughly 100-square-mile net loss in the four weeks to 26 May .

The trend has held into June. ISW recorded no Russian advances at all on 7 June , and the front has not produced the kind of breakthrough Moscow's spring offensive promised. Ukraine tripled Russia's per-kilometre attrition cost to 179 losses per square kilometre this year , so Moscow now spends more men for less ground.

The forward-looking signal sits in where Russia probes next. Meduza, a Russian exile outlet, identified the Dobropillia sector in western Donetsk as Moscow's new pressure point, an axis that would bypass Kramatorsk from the west. Kramatorsk anchors Ukraine's fortified "fortress belt", the dense line of defended towns Russia has battered without breaking since 2024. A flanking push through Dobropillia would aim to turn that belt rather than assault it head-on, which is why a single sector flag matters more than the net-loss number suggests. Russia cannot move the line by force, so it is hunting for a way around it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based research group that tracks the Ukraine battlefield daily, found that Russia actually lost more territory than it gained over the four weeks up to 9 June, a net loss of around 91 square miles. Separately, a Russian exile news outlet called Meduza reported that Russian forces appear to be starting a new push in the Dobropillia area of western Donetsk. This is significant because Dobropillia sits to the west of Russia's main advance routes and could, if successful, allow Russian forces to approach the key Ukrainian fortress-city of Kramatorsk from an unexpected direction. No Russian breakthrough has occurred there yet, and ISW classifies the activity as a probe rather than a main effort.

What could happen next?

Risk
If the Dobropillia probe develops into a sustained operational push, Ukraine must reinforce a third Donetsk axis simultaneously with Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, which strains an already-tight manpower and artillery allocation.
Meaning
ISW and DeepState's divergence on the four-week territorial balance, one showing a net Russian loss and the other a small Russian gain, reflects different methodologies for counting contested settlements and should be read as a signal that the front is in near-stasis rather than either side holding a clear edge.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United States

United States

Primary parallel: The German 1942 Operation Blue (Fall Blau) attempted to bypass Soviet strength around Moscow by pushing south-east toward Stalingrad and the Caucasus oil fields, opening a new operational direction when the central front had stalled. Russian command may be applying the same logic: probe for a new axis where Ukrainian defences are thinner rather than continue frontal attrition on the defended axes.

Counter-parallel: Russia's 2024 Kursk cross-border operation, which opened a completely new axis into Russian territory itself, showed that new directional pressures can generate tactical surprise but do not automatically translate into strategic advantage. Ukraine absorbed the Kursk incursion without losing the Donetsk front.

Consensus view: The Institute for the Study of War's Frederick Kagan notes that ISW's four-week net-loss figure of around 91 square miles to 9 June extends a trend recorded since ISW logged no Russian advances on 7 June , and that Meduza's Dobropillia identification represents a potential Russian operational pivot: rather than continuing to push on the Kurakhove axis where Ukrainian defences have stiffened, Russian command may be probing a western Donetsk approach that bypasses Kramatorsk from the south-west.

Counter-view: Moscow's Kommersant military correspondent Nikita Krakhmalov, citing sources in the 58th Combined Arms Army, argues the Dobropillia probe is reconnaissance-in-force rather than a main effort: Russian logistics in western Donetsk are not yet configured for a sustained Kramatorsk bypass.

The net territorial loss figure is also contested by DeepState's mapping, which shows a small Russian net gain over the same four-week period, reflecting different methodologies for counting disputed settlements.

Key tension: Whether Dobropillia is the beginning of a new Russian operational direction that would open a third pressure axis in Donetsk alongside Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, or a feint designed to spread Ukrainian defensive resources across a wider front.

Sources:PBS News / AP·PBS News / AP·PBS News / AP

Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Meduza →Russia →Kramatorsk →Pokrovsk →Moscow →DeepState →Kursk →Russian forces →Donetsk →Washington →Ukraine →Dobropillia →

First Reported In

Update #20 · Oil vise shuts as Russia torches the Lavra

PBS News / AP· 16 Jun 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Russia loses 100 sq miles in four weeks

The 91 sq mi net loss to 9 June extends the stall pattern ISW had already recorded showing Russia net-lost 100 sq mi in the four weeks to 26 May.

Occurred 26 May 2026

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This Event

ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens

Russia is going backwards on net territory yet probing a fresh axis that would bypass Ukraine's main Donetsk fortress city from the west.

Different Perspectives

Turkey

Ankara hosts the NATO summit on 7-8 July, the next Western diplomatic convergence that Russia may target with a mass barrage based on the documented pattern of timing strikes to allied events; Turkey's role as the indispensable logistical intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow gives it standing to broker any ceasefire repair at Zaporizhzhia.

IAEA

The IAEA's sixth brokered repair ceasefire at ZNPP collapsed within days of enabling initial work on the 750 kV Dniprovska line, leaving Europe's largest nuclear plant on a single 330 kV backup with 19 total blackouts recorded since the Russian occupation began.

European Union

The EU delayed the €9.1bn first tranche of its €90bn Ukraine loan on unmet technical conditions, while disbursing a separate €2.8bn Facility payment on 8 June; the G7 sanctions-to-talks linkage now runs parallel to EU enforcement.

United Kingdom

Britain conducted its first maritime interdiction of the Russian shadow fleet, with Royal Marines seizing the Smyrtos in the English Channel on 14 June, and simultaneously announced a £210m Urenco uranium deal to break Ukraine's dependence on Russian nuclear fuel.

United States

Trump called both Putin and Zelenskyy separately on 14 June, pledged to re-engage on Ukraine now the Iran deal is done, and the G7 tied future Russia sanctions to peace-talk progress, giving Washington leverage over both parties' negotiating posture.

Ukraine

Zelenskyy attended the G7 at Evian and proposed a direct Putin summit while 140,000 households in Kyiv lost power and the Lavra's Dormition Cathedral burned; Metropolitan Epiphanius called it an attack "against history, against Christianity." Kyiv's immediate priority is closing the PAC-3 export gap that left 19 of 34 Iskander-M ballistic missiles unintercepted.