Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
13MAY

France and Japan pay Iran's toll

2 min read
20:00UTC

Two G7 nations paid Iran in yuan to transit the Strait of Hormuz, breaking the collective coalition posture Washington built.

ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

The US-led coalition is fracturing as allies pay Iran for passage in Chinese currency.

CMA CGM Kribi, a Malta-flagged container ship owned by France's CMA CGM (the world's third-largest container line), became the first Western European vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February. It paid Iran's toll in yuan. Before entering Iranian territorial waters, the ship changed its AIS designation to "Owner France", signalling nationality for the IRGC's sorting mechanism. 1

Hours later, Mitsui OSK Lines' LNG carrier Sohar LNG crossed in ballast, the first Japanese-affiliated vessel to transit. Three Omani ships also passed through . The toll system charges $1 per barrel for oil tankers or roughly $2 million flat for container ships, payable in yuan or stablecoins.

France and Japan are nominal US allies. Both coordinated with Iranian maritime authorities. Both implicitly accepted Tehran's sovereignty claim over the strait, the precise claim Trump's 6 April energy deadline threatens force to break. Both paid in yuan, not dollars. The Philippines cut its own bilateral deal two days earlier . The coalition posture Washington has relied on since the blockade began is dissolving into bilateral licensing arrangements administered by Tehran.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

France and Japan are close US allies. On 4 April, their shipping companies paid Iran a fee in Chinese currency to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. This matters for two reasons. First, they implicitly accepted Iran's right to charge for use of an international waterway. Second, they paid in yuan, not dollars, chipping away at US financial influence. The Philippines cut a similar deal two days earlier. The alliance the US built around Hormuz is dissolving one bilateral arrangement at a time.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

France's CMA CGM faces existential commercial pressure: the world's third-largest container line cannot absorb indefinite Hormuz closure without route restructuring at scale.

Japan's LNG dependency on Gulf supply creates energy-security vulnerability that outweighs diplomatic solidarity costs. Both governments calculated that collective posture imposed costs their economies could not sustain, while defection imposed only reputational costs the US would absorb rather than escalate over.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    Yuan payment for Hormuz passage creates a non-dollar settlement precedent for strategic waterway access that will outlast this conflict.

    Long term · High
  • Consequence

    Each bilateral deal reduces the political viability of US military action to reopen Hormuz, as enforcement would require overriding arrangements US allies have themselves accepted.

    Short term · High
  • Risk

    General License U expiry on 19 April could force a confrontation with France and Japan if Treasury declines to renew, criminalising transactions both nations have already completed.

    Medium term · Medium
First Reported In

Update #58 · First US aircraft fall over Iran

Euronews / Bloomberg· 4 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
The B9+Nordic Bucharest joint statement on 13 May reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty within internationally recognised borders and backed NATO eastern flank reinforcement; the summit accepted Zelenskyy's bilateral drone deal proposal as a structural alternative to the stalled US export approval pathway, treating it as a European defence architecture question rather than aid delivery.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi is still negotiating a sixth ZNPP repair ceasefire with no agreement after 50 days of 750 kV line disconnection; the 3 May ERCL drone strike that destroyed environmental monitoring equipment represents a qualitative escalation in infrastructure degradation that the IAEA has documented but cannot compel either party to halt.
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Magyar's incoming foreign minister pledged on 12 May that Hungary will stop abusing EU veto rights; the pledge is a statement of intent rather than a binding legal commitment, and Magyar's MEPs voted against the €90 billion loan as recently as April, while a planned referendum on Ukraine's EU accession preserves a downstream blocking lever.
EU Council and European Commission
EU Council and European Commission
The Magyar cabinet formation on 12 May removes the Hungary veto that had blocked the €9.1 billion first tranche since February; the Commission is now coordinating the three-document disbursement package for an early-June vote. The structural blocker is gone; the disbursement question is now scheduling, not politics.
Donald Trump / White House
Donald Trump / White House
Trump announced a 9-11 May three-day ceasefire with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange attached, then called peace 'getting very close' on 11-13 May while Russia's 800-drone barrage was under way; his public framing adopted Russian diplomatic language without securing any Russian operational concession or verifying the exchange was agreed.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin told reporters on 9 May the war is 'coming to an end' while Peskov confirmed on 13 May that territorial demands are unchanged and Russia requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from all four annexed regions; the verbal accommodation costs Moscow nothing and conditions any summit on a pre-finalised treaty Kyiv cannot accept.