16MAY

IRGC fires 66th wave in 21 days

4 min read

12:41UTC

The IRGC fired its 66th attack wave using multi-warhead missiles and four weapon systems, three weeks into a campaign the US says destroyed 90% of Iran's strike capacity.

← Back to Two Hormuz papers; Washington on neither Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Simultaneous targeting of Israel and US bases forces two separate missile-defence systems to exhaust interceptors concurrently.

The IRGC announced its 66th wave of attacks on Thursday — 66 waves in 21 days, averaging more than three per day since hostilities began on 28 February. This salvo deployed what the IRGC described as "super-heavy multi-warhead" Qadr missiles alongside Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, and Zolfaqar systems, targeting positions in Israel and at US military bases across the region.

The sustained tempo runs directly counter to American and Israeli damage assessments. Netanyahu claimed on 19 March that Iran can "no longer make ballistic missiles" — a statement the IAEA has not corroborated and no independent agency with inspection access has confirmed. US officials have estimated Iranian capacity is down 90%. Yet the IRGC continues to fire multi-system salvos at a rate that shows no deceleration from the war's first week. Minutes before his death on Thursday, IRGC spokesman Naeini had publicly insisted Iran was still manufacturing missiles — his final public statement before an airstrike killed him in Tehran.

The weapon systems in this wave each serve distinct tactical functions. The Khorramshahr is Iran's longest-range liquid-fuelled Ballistic missile, with an assessed range of 2,000 kilometres and a warhead capacity of approximately 1,500 kilograms — built for strategic targets deep in Israeli territory. The Kheibar Shekan, a solid-fuelled medium-range system first unveiled in 2022, requires significantly shorter launch preparation, making it harder to detect and destroy on the ground. The Zolfaqar is a tactical precision missile used operationally against ISIS positions in eastern Syria in 2017 and again during the April 2024 strikes on Israel. The Qadr variant now described as "super-heavy multi-warhead" — if carrying functional multiple re-entry vehicles — would complicate interception by forcing defence systems to track and engage several warheads per incoming missile rather than one.

The IRGC claimed on 15 March that most missiles fired so far were produced "a decade ago" and that weapons manufactured after the initial strikes remain unused . If accurate, Iran's pre-war stockpile depth exceeds what three weeks of intensive US targeting has depleted. The cost asymmetry compounds the problem for defenders: Israel's emergency NIS 2.6 billion interceptor procurement buys Arrow and David's Sling rounds at $2–3 million each, while Iranian ballistic missiles cost a fraction of that to produce. At Iran's current firing rate, each wave imposes cumulative inventory and financial pressure on Israeli and Gulf air defences regardless of interception success rates — a dynamic that favours the side with cheaper munitions and deeper magazines in any prolonged exchange.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

When Iran fires missiles at both Israel and US bases at the same time, two entirely separate defence systems — Israel's Iron Dome and the US Patriot and THAAD networks — must respond simultaneously. Each interceptor missile costs several times more than the attacking missile. After 66 attack waves over three weeks, the cumulative drain on allied interceptor stockpiles is strategically significant. Iran is also claiming a 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr capability not previously publicly confirmed — either a genuine reserve weapon revealed under pressure, or a propaganda escalation designed to inflate the perceived threat and strain defensive planning.

Deep Analysis

Synthesis

The numbering of attack waves serves a domestic Iranian function as much as a military one. Each new wave number signals to the Iranian public that the regime is still prosecuting the war, directly counteracting the credibility damage caused by the supreme leader's physical absence. The propaganda and military attrition functions are structurally inseparable in this wave model — removing either would collapse the other.

Root Causes

Iran's 'mosaic defence' doctrine — developed after the Iran-Iraq war and institutionalised in IRGC operational planning — explicitly anticipates asymmetric conflict against technologically superior adversaries, prioritising volume and persistence over precision to exhaust rather than destroy. The wave-numbering structure is the doctrine operating as designed, not improvised desperation; each wave simultaneously fulfils military attrition and domestic propaganda functions.

Escalation

The introduction of 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr missiles into the named inventory represents either a genuine capability revelation or a deliberate escalatory propaganda claim. If genuine, it suggests Iran retained a strategic reserve specifically for this phase. If fabricated, it indicates the regime is substituting psychological escalation for material capability as conventional stockpiles deplete — itself a signal of approaching inventory exhaustion.

What could happen next?

Meaning
Sixty-six named waves over 21 days establishes a deliberate attrition tempo designed to exhaust interceptor stockpiles faster than allied production lines can replenish them.
Immediate · Assessed
Consequence
Allied Patriot and THAAD interceptor inventories face cumulative depletion at a rate production lines cannot replace within months, creating a medium-term missile defence gap regardless of conflict outcome.
Medium term · Assessed
Risk
If the 'super-heavy multi-warhead' Qadr claim is genuine, it represents a withheld strategic reserve — suggesting further undisclosed capabilities may be deployed in subsequent waves.
Short term · Suggested
Meaning
Simultaneous targeting of Israel and US bases forces cross-command coordination between two separate air defence networks, creating potential seam vulnerabilities in integrated defence response.
Immediate · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United Kingdom

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LeftRight

Primary parallel: Iraq's Al-Hussein Scud campaign against Israel and Saudi Arabia in the 1991 Gulf War — 88 launches over 42 days — successfully diverted US Patriot batteries from offensive operations and forced Israeli military restraint, demonstrating that technically imprecise missile campaigns achieve strategic resource-diversion objectives independent of accuracy.

Counter-parallel: Hezbollah's 4,000-rocket campaign against Israel in 2006 was absorbed without strategic concession, demonstrating that sustained missile campaigns without a ground component rarely achieve political objectives against a technically superior opponent with sufficient interceptor depth.

Why it’s relevant now

The 1991 parallel is directly applicable to the dual-targeting logic: even technically unsuccessful Scud attacks diverted significant allied resources. At 66 waves over 21 days, the resource-diversion and interceptor-depletion effect compounds regardless of individual targeting accuracy.

The interceptor cost-exchange ratio is the primary economic mechanism not addressed in the body. If Iran fires ballistic missiles at an average unit cost of $500,000–$2M, and the US and Israel intercept with Patriot PAC-3 ($4M) or THAAD ($11M) missiles, Iran is imposing a 2–20x cost multiplier on defenders per successful intercept.

Patriot and THAAD production rates cannot replace wartime consumption at this tempo — replenishment timelines run to years, not months. Over 66 waves, cumulative allied interceptor expenditure runs to several billion dollars, creating a medium-term missile defence capability gap that will outlast the conflict itself regardless of outcome and require significant defence budget allocation to address.

Consensus view: RAND Corporation cost-exchange analyses of missile defence campaigns show that sustained salvos impose asymmetric costs on defenders — each Patriot PAC-3 intercept costs approximately $4M and THAAD interceptors approximately $11M, against Iranian ballistic missiles costing a fraction of that, creating a compounding fiscal drain across 66 waves.

Counter-view: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Chinese analysts at the Academy of Military Science have assessed that Iran's mosaic warfare doctrine historically produces strategic stalemates rather than decisive outcomes — as demonstrated in Lebanon 2006 — suggesting the approach exhausts both sides without achieving resolution for either.

Key tension: Whether Iran's stockpile depth can sustain further waves before its own inventory exhaustion shifts the cost-exchange ratio decisively against it.

First Reported In

Update #43 · Trump floats wind-down, deploys 2,200 more

Iran International· 21 Mar 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

IRGC fires 66th wave in 21 days

Iran's sustained missile tempo — averaging more than three waves daily with no visible deceleration — contradicts US and Israeli claims of near-total capacity destruction and raises unresolved questions about pre-war stockpile depth and the long-term cost sustainability of allied missile defence.

Led to

IRGC fires 70th wave, commanders falling

70th wave follows the 66th wave four days earlier, maintaining daily attack tempo.

Occurred 21 Mar 2026

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Different Perspectives

India (BRICS meeting host, grey-market beneficiary)

New Delhi hosted the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting on 14 May that Araghchi attended under the Minab168 designation, giving India a front-row seat to Iran's diplomatic positioning. India's state refiners have been absorbing discounted Iranian crude through grey-market routing since April; Brent at $109.30 means every barrel sourced outside the formal market generates a structural saving.

Hengaw / Kurdish human rights monitors

Hengaw's daily reports from Iran's Kurdish provinces remain the sole independent cross-check on Iran's judicial activity during the conflict. Two executions across Qom and Karaj Central prisons on 15 May and five Kurdish detentions on 15-16 May indicate the wartime judicial pipeline is operating independently of military tempo.

Pakistan (mediator and bilateral partner)

Islamabad spent its diplomatic capital as the US-Iran MOU carrier to secure LNG passage for two Qatari vessels through a bilateral Pakistan-Iran agreement, spending its mediation credit for direct economic gain. China's public endorsement of Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May is the structural reward.

China and BRICS bloc

Beijing endorsed Pakistan's mediatory role on 13 May, one day after the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi. Chinese state banks are processing PGSA yuan toll payments; China has not commented on its vessels' continued Hormuz passage, but benefits structurally from a non-dollar toll system it did not design.

Iraq (bilateral passage partner)

Baghdad negotiated a 2-million-barrel VLCC transit without paying PGSA yuan tolls, offering political alignment in lieu of cash. Iraq's position inside Iran's adjacent bloc makes it the natural first bilateral partner and a template for how Tehran structures passage deals with states that cannot afford Western coalition membership.

Bahrain and Qatar (Gulf signatories)

Both signed the Western coalition paper while hosting US Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM's Al Udeid base, respectively. Qatar occupies the sharpest contradiction: it is on coalition paper while simultaneously receiving LNG passage through the bilateral Iran-Pakistan track, a position Doha has tacitly accepted from both sides.