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Iran Conflict 2026
10MAY

Tehran says ball is in America's court

3 min read
14:22UTC

Iran says it holds an initial draft accord relayed via Pakistan and is waiting on the United States' final counter-text, inverting the Western framing of who is holding up the deal.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Tehran says it holds the draft and is waiting on Washington, reversing the question of who is stalling the deal.

Iran has obtained an initial draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) through Pakistani mediation and is awaiting the United States' finalised counter-text, according to a strategic analyst who told the Iranian state-linked network SNN that "the ball is now in America's court" 1. Islamabad has shuttled messages between the two capitals for weeks, and Tehran's account places the unanswered move on Washington's side of the table.

The framing inverts the Western narrative. In Trump's telling, the deal was "largely negotiated" and awaiting Iranian follow-through ; in Tehran's, the draft is already in Iran's hands and the United States is the one yet to respond. Both cannot be the waiting party. The contest over who is stalling is not cosmetic, because each government answers to a domestic audience that punishes the side seen to be conceding and rewards the side seen to be holding firm.

The procedural record gives Tehran's version some support. Trump's own condition, posted on 24 May, is that the naval blockade stays in place until any agreement is certified and signed , which rules out a partial or verbal text. If Washington will only lift the blockade on a fully signed instrument, then the next move genuinely does sit with the party that has to draft, certify and sign that paper.

The inversion is a deliberate piece of narrative positioning, amplified through a state-linked outlet, and it works precisely because the underlying facts are ambiguous enough to support more than one reading. With no published text from either side, the public account of who holds the draft is itself a negotiating instrument, and Tehran has chosen to wield it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as a go-between for the US and Iran throughout this conflict. Iran says Pakistan delivered an initial draft of the peace agreement (the memorandum of understanding) to Tehran, and now Iran is waiting for the United States to send back its version with any changes. This flips who looks like they are holding things up. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had promised "good news in hours" on a deal; that timeline had slipped to "a couple of days". Meanwhile, an analyst speaking on Iranian state TV said the ball is now in America's court. This is about managing public perception as much as actual negotiating. Iran wants to be seen as cooperative and waiting, with Washington as the slow party. Whether the US has actually received a specific text to respond to, or whether this is Iran's framing of a more fluid situation, is not confirmed from outside sources.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's army-chief channel emerged because the civilian tracks, Araghchi's foreign ministry, Vance's Islamabad visit (cancelled after Iran walked back), and the Doha session, all stalled on the same nuclear sequencing problem.

The Pakistani military has institutional access to both Iran's IRGC command (where nuclear decisions actually live) and to the US national security apparatus (via CENTCOM interoperability). No civilian diplomatic track has that dual access. The result is that the deal's most sensitive concessions travel through a channel that bypasses elected governments on both sides.

Trump's "blockade holds until certified and signed" condition creates the specific procedural problem Iran is now exploiting: if the US insists on a signed final instrument before lifting the blockade, Tehran can frame every day of blockade continuation as American delay, even as the MOU draft sits unresponded-to in Washington's inbox.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Iran's procedural-inversion framing on 26 May shifts domestic and international optics: any further delay in signing can now be attributed to US procrastination rather than Iranian resistance.

  • Consequence

    Pakistan's army-chief channel becoming the primary MOU conduit means Islamabad's general-officer corps has structural authority over the deal's final text, an institutional outcome that changes Pakistan's regional leverage regardless of whether the deal is signed.

First Reported In

Update #108 · US strikes Bandar Abbas as deal talk stalls

CBS News· 26 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Oil markets / Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to near $87.33 on 80 per cent deal-probability pricing, but Lloyd's has not de-listed Hormuz from its war-risk register and shipping diversions continue at 139 vessels. Insurance markets are lagging futures: physical risk remains while financial markets have spent the good news before the paper exists.
India
India
Modi is expected to raise the deaths of three Indian sailors in the 11 June CENTCOM strike on the MT Settebello with Trump at G7 sidelines, the first non-party leader to put the blockade's human cost into a formal bilateral. New Delhi is also a major Iranian oil buyer whose import volumes the sanctions-relief terms will govern.
Israel (Netanyahu)
Israel (Netanyahu)
Netanyahu stated Israel is not party to the deal on 12 June; Defence Minister Katz ruled out the Lebanon withdrawal Iran's draft demands, inserting a third blocker the US-Iran negotiating channel cannot resolve. Israel's position tethers Hormuz reopening to a Lebanon settlement Washington has not brokered.
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)
Sharif declared a final agreed text on 12 June before either principal confirmed it, running two Tehran visits in under a week without securing a written IRGC or Khamenei response. Islamabad's incentive to claim a diplomatic win outpaces its standing to deliver either capital's signature.
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)
Araghchi declared digital signing within days while setting dilute-in-Iran as a non-negotiable red line on the 440.9 kg HEU stockpile, a standing Tehran position he cannot override without authorisation from Khamenei, reachable only by courier. The FM track is sprinting to close before the IRGC reasserts control.
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Vance called the deal still TBD on 12 June while CENTCOM downed Iranian drones over Hormuz for a second consecutive night and the White House register stayed blank. Washington holds the ship-out position on HEU and has not signed an Iran instrument in over 100 days of conflict.