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Iran Conflict 2026
18APR

Trump: blockade stays till deal signed

3 min read
14:57UTC

Trump set his most specific reopening condition yet on Sunday: the naval blockade stays "until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed." No instrument accompanied the post. The blockade holds regardless of the deal talk.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Trump's signed-deal condition keeps the blockade in force and rules out a verbal memorandum.

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday 24 May that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will stay "in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed" 1. He added that talks were "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" and told his negotiators "not to rush into a deal" because "time is on our side." No executive order or presidential instrument accompanied the post.

Trump had earlier presented the negotiation as nearly settled ; the 24 May post adds an operational condition rather than fresh optimism, and its value lies in what it commits the United States to do rather than say. "Certified, and signed" sets a documentary bar the talks have not met: it rules out the partial or verbal memorandum structure the negotiations had been moving toward.

For the reader arriving cold: the blockade is the US Navy enforcing closure of the strait, the world's busiest oil chokepoint, through which roughly a fifth of seaborne crude moves. Trump's condition means the ships stay regardless of how warm the diplomatic language gets, until a signed text exists. That is why a deal can be reported as close while the strait stays shut.

The condition also bears directly on the sequencing fight. Iran wants its frozen assets freed before it concedes anything operational, while Trump now wants a signed agreement before he lifts the blockade. The two preconditions point in opposite directions, and a verbal understanding satisfies neither. On the day, the only concrete US act was the wording of a social-media post, and the blockade it described needed no signature to stay in force.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

President Trump posted on 24 May that the US naval blockade of the Persian Gulf will stay in place until a deal with Iran is reached and actually signed, agreed by both sides, and formally certified. He also told his negotiators to take their time. This rules out a looser kind of deal where both sides announce they have agreed without writing it down. Iran and the US had been trying to reach exactly that kind of informal arrangement. Trump's post says a signed document is required before the blockade ends, which raises the bar significantly for the ongoing talks.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The absence of signed instruments across 87 days of conflict traces to a constitutional and legal-reversibility calculation. The United States War Powers Resolution (1973) requires the president to submit a written report to Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces.

Trump submitted no such report; the administration has argued the operation falls under existing Authorizations for Use of Military Force. A 'certified and signed' MOU, if it constitutes a ceasefire terminating existing hostilities, would create a legislative record the White House has so far avoided.

Additionally, any signed MOU that includes US sanctions relief requires OFAC to publish a general licence, which becomes a permanent public record challengeable under the Administrative Procedure Act. Trump's preference for Truth Social over signed instruments reflects the legal-reversibility advantage of executive non-commitment: no signed text means no APA challenge, no Senate ratification hearing, and no precedent that constrains future executive action toward Iran.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Any informal MOU structure, including the 60-day framework Ghalibaf and Vance had reportedly developed, requires revision into a formally signed instrument before the blockade can lift under Trump's posted condition.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Iran's Khamenei Council may interpret 'certified and signed' as a demand for a treaty-level instrument, which would require US Senate ratification that no Republican senator has indicated willingness to provide.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    A signed MOU, once deposited, becomes the first Iran-specific signed US executive instrument of the entire 87-day conflict, filling the zero-instrument gap documented across every prior post.

    Medium term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #107 · Two markets, two prices on one Iran deal

Al Jazeera· 25 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk rate at $10-14 million per voyage; underwriters need a UN Security Council resolution or formal PGSA de-listing before repricing, not a Senate testimony. The PGSA remains on the SDN list under EO 13224, so any vessel transiting a nominally reopened strait still deals with a sanctioned counterparty.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Brent crude at $95-97 on 2-3 June reflects Gulf producers benefiting from the conflict premium; a genuine Hormuz deal would likely cut that premium by $10-15 per barrel. Riyadh's $87 per barrel budget breakeven means the current price is comfortable, reducing the Gulf's urgency to push for a rapid settlement.
China
China
OFAC's Nobitex designation leaves China's informal bilateral currency-swap lines with Iran as the CBI's remaining rial-defence mechanism; Chinese financial institutions face secondary-sanctions risk if they interact with successor wallets. Beijing's MOFCOM Blocking Rules protect mainland refineries from direct designation but do not shield informal swap-line counterparties.
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon's Washington delegation demanded full Israeli withdrawal and the return of 1.2 million displaced; Hezbollah deployed an FPV drone that killed an Israeli soldier at Yohmor while talks ran, demonstrating it can impose costs even at Israel's deepest penetration point. Lebanon's government cannot deliver the Hezbollah disarmament guarantee Israel demands.
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli forces seized Beaufort Castle above the Litani on 1-2 June and advanced to within 10 km of the Zaharani river while ceasefire delegations sat in Washington; the advance ran entirely outside the Beirut-only truce Netanyahu accepted on 1 June. Each kilometre taken raises Israel's withdrawal price before any permanent text is signed.
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Araghchi rang six capitals in 48 hours to reopen talks the SNSC had suspended, calling the IRGC line 'speculation'; at home, 37 political prisoners were executed since 19 March while students marched in Tehran, Mashhad and Hamadan. The diplomatic thaw has not eased the state's wartime repression tempo.