Managed money held a NYMEX Brent Last Day net long of 8,130 contracts in the week to 16 June, up from 6,799 two weeks earlier, while NYMEX WTI money managers held +96,228, the CFTC reported on Monday 22 June1. On ICE Futures Europe's smaller WTI contract, managed money was net short 23,666. The Commitments of Traders release was delayed two days by the Juneteenth holiday. The dual crude net long that rebuilt in early June survived the selloff.
Three weeks ago the Brent Last Day book was already small and long, with Brent at $92.69. The screen has since marked the entire Iran risk premium out of crude after OFAC authorised Iranian crude sales2. The Brent Last Day book has little length to liquidate and no crowded short to fuel a mechanical rally; the WTI book still carries heavy length.
Three catalysts now sit inside a single fortnight. ISAB Priolo, the Lukoil refinery in Sicily, faces a sanctions deadline this weekend. US distillates have just posted their first build in weeks. An August double-expiry of GL X and the Islamabad framework, the US-Iran memorandum signed 15 June that set a 60-day diplomatic clock, waits beyond. Each lands into a thin Brent book and a heavy WTI book.
