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Iran Conflict 2026
21SEP

Tankers run a southern route under US guidance

2 min read
15:34UTC

The Associated Press reported that operators keep moving oil on a southern route near the Omani coast under American guidance, as Lloyd's List Intelligence logged 102 Hormuz transits in a week.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Oil keeps moving through Hormuz on a route one navy directs and the other calls illegal.

Associated Press reported on 3 September that tanker operators are still moving oil through the strait by taking a southern route near the coast of Oman under the guidance of US forces, while Lloyd's List Intelligence logged 102 Hormuz transits in the preceding week 1. The week's calendar boundaries were not published, so the count cannot be lined up precisely against any other week's.

That traffic level says something on its own. Shipping had fallen to a single transit on one day in mid-August, recorded by S&P Global . Cargo is moving again, and it is moving because somebody is telling masters where to sail.

Each navy now tells masters where they may sail. The IRGC's own statement called the route its targets were taking "unauthorized", which asserts a right to license traffic through an international waterway. Iran signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees transit passage through straits used for international navigation, but never ratified it, and that gap sits underneath every Iranian closure claim of this war. Washington runs the mirror image: American forces route the southern shuttle, and the IRGC calls that route unauthorised.

The physical argument runs alongside the legal one. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters said it had laid new mines south of the strait by 2 September, in lanes the US Navy had cleared days before . A master on the southern shuttle is steering between a mine risk on one side and a legal claim on the other, with a war-risk premium attached to both.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow channel every tanker leaving the Gulf must pass through. The Associated Press reported that operators are still moving oil, but many now take a longer southern route hugging the Omani coast, guided by US forces, rather than the shortest path through the strait. Lloyd's List Intelligence, a shipping-data firm, counted 102 transits of the strait in the week AP reported on. That is not a closed strait; it is oil still moving, just under a different set of instructions than before, and at whatever extra time and cost the longer route adds.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Traffic continuing at 102 transits in the reported week shows the strait is not closed, but a fleet routing around the shortest path under naval guidance is not operating normally either; the true state sits between those two extremes.

First Reported In

Update #176 · Three tankers for two warships

Al Jazeera· 7 Sept 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Shipping and insurance industry
Shipping and insurance industry
UKMTO counted about 20 US-facilitated Hormuz transits a day to 11 September against only 6 visible on AIS, with traffic still around 90% below the 138-a-day pre-war baseline. War-risk underwriters cannot price hulls they cannot see, or resolve whether the tanker El Gaia hit a mine, as Iran claims, or a missile and drone, as CENTCOM says.
European refiners
European refiners
European refiners, including Poland's Orlen, absorbed a roughly $26 gap between Dated Brent at $130.80 on 15 September and ICE Brent futures settling at $103.87 on 18 September, a spread that widened from $13.45 on 9 September rather than newly opening. Their futures hedges no longer cover what they now pay for physical barrels.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Aramco zeroed European term customers' October allocations and rerouted roughly 60 million barrels to Asia through Ras Tanura and Sohar, using Red Sea and Gulf terminal capacity built years ago to cut Hormuz exposure. Riyadh reallocated existing supply rather than negotiating a shortfall with Europe.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum on 20 September that Bessent's two-year Hormuz-obsolescence forecast is wrong, and that Doha has deliberately built no bypass pipeline. Qatar's gas exports run through one waterway by choice, not oversight.
Iran (foreign ministry and Majlis)
Iran (foreign ministry and Majlis)
Iran's foreign ministry and 130 Majlis deputies moved toward NPT withdrawal this week, with lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani filing a triple-urgency bill on 20 September that Speaker Qalibaf has not yet scheduled. Tehran treats treaty membership as leverage still on the table, not yet spent.
Russia and China
Russia and China
Moscow and Beijing vetoed the Panel of Experts' renewal, maintaining Resolution 2231 lapsed in October 2025 and the 2025 snapback was never validly triggered, so the sanctions architecture the Panel enforces has no current legal standing. Both governments frame the veto as upholding law, not shielding Tehran.