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Iran Conflict 2026
11SEP

Five tankers for two failed missiles

3 min read
09:25UTC

CENTCOM disabled five Iranian crude carriers on 8 September after two ballistic-missile attempts against one US warship missed. Three days earlier the same exchange ran at a ratio of three.

ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Every Iranian launch now costs tanker hulls, whether or not the missile finds its target.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Tuesday 8 September that American forces had rendered five Iranian crude carriers inoperable after ordering their crews to abandon ship: Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1 and Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, and Derya near Kharg Island 1. The trigger was two ballistic-missile attempts against a single unnamed US warship over 7 and 8 September, both of which CENTCOM says failed, with no American casualties 2.

Three days earlier the same exchange ran at a different ratio. Missiles fired at a carrier and a destroyer on 5 September brought three Iranian tankers in reply, one of them destroyed , after anonymous officials described a tanker-for-tanker rule to a US news site on 1 September . The two vessels named in that earlier release, Downy and Stark 1, were Iranian crude carriers disabled by US forces, not the American warships Iran had aimed at 3.

Both attempts over 7 and 8 September missed, and CENTCOM took five hulls anyway. It is charging for the attempt rather than for the damage, and an underwriter can price that rule directly: every Iranian launch, hit or miss, costs hulls from a sanctioned export fleet that cannot be replaced through open broking. A shipowner outside the conflict can buy a replacement in London or Singapore within days. A designated Iranian operator cannot, because the broking, classification and insurance chains that move a secondhand tanker all touch jurisdictions that enforce the designations. Each hull removed is removed for the duration.

The bill also lands in the wrong department for Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fires the missiles; the crude that pays for the state is sold by a different arm of government, and it is that arm that absorbs the loss. Any escalation decision inside Iran now has to be argued between two ministries with opposite exposure to it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

CENTCOM is the US Central Command, the American military headquarters responsible for the Middle East. The IRGC is Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a parallel military force separate from Iran's regular army. On 8 September, the US said an American warship avoided two Iranian missile attacks. In response, US forces put five Iranian oil tankers out of action on 8 September, first ordering their crews to abandon ship. This has become a pattern since early September: when Iran tries to hit a US warship and fails, the US responds by disabling Iranian tankers rather than striking back at the missile launchers themselves, a trade that costs Iran ships without costing either side more lives.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The ratio Cooper announced in early September, three tankers per failed attempt, has widened to five against the same or fewer missiles fired, which points to CENTCOM expanding its target list beyond direct retaliation into a standing campaign against Iran's tanker fleet, using each attempted strike as the stated trigger.

Iran's ballistic-missile accuracy against manoeuvring naval targets has produced no confirmed hit across the two most recent attempts, while Jordan intercepted 18 of 20 missiles fired at its own territory the same week. A force with a low hit rate against defended targets still has an incentive to keep firing, since the domestic political cost of visible inaction outweighs the material cost of a further tanker loss.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A widening tanker-per-attempt ratio, from three to five between the two most recent exchanges, suggests the US response has moved from proportionate retaliation towards a broader campaign against Iran's remaining tanker fleet.

First Reported In

Update #177 · 23 to 3: Iran goes to the Security Council

U.S. Central Command· 11 Sept 2026
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Different Perspectives
Turkey
Turkey
Golden Global Portfoy Yonetimi closed three funds to new money a day after telling regulators they were legally separate from its sanctioned parent, and the central bank held its rate at 37 per cent citing energy-driven inflation risk. Ankara is absorbing balance-sheet and monetary costs from a war it is not fighting.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar's foreign ministry said it was coordinating with China during a Beijing visit to restart negotiations, while filing hundreds of letters at the UN documenting Iranian strikes on its own civilian facilities. Doha is mediating for a neighbour it is also formally accusing, a contradiction the referral's clean vote count does not show.
China and Russia
China and Russia
China and Russia voted against the IAEA referral alongside Niger, and Iran's ambassador told the Board that inspections were impossible during a war Iran did not start. Beijing is separately mediating between Doha and Tehran, meaning the same power blocking the West's legal track is running the diplomatic one that might actually end the war.
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan said it intercepted 18 of the 20 Iranian ballistic missiles fired at its territory on 8 September, the war's first sustained salvo against a state that is not a combatant. Amman's 90 per cent interception rate held, but a tenfold jump in missiles fired in a single volley raises what the next one might carry.
United States
United States
CENTCOM said its strikes disabled five Iranian tankers only after two failed missile attempts on a US warship, and Treasury moved the same week to a presumption of denial on all Iran licences. Washington now treats commercial shipping and financial plumbing as one enforcement front rather than two separate tracks.
Iran / IRGC
Iran / IRGC
Iran's foreign ministry called the CENTCOM tanker strikes a war crime and a breach of the UN Charter, while the IRGC named two US destroyers it says it damaged without releasing images. Tehran expects the claims, unverifiable either way, to sustain domestic morale after losing five tankers in a single day.