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Iran Conflict 2026
23AUG

Russia loses men 17 times Ukraine's rate

2 min read
19:02UTC

ISW assessed slowing Russian momentum as deputy commander Madyar Brovdi reported a 53-to-three daily loss exchange, Russia spending soldiers at 17 times Ukraine's rate for ground it cannot hold.

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ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Russia is losing soldiers 17 times faster than Ukraine for a front that will not move.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington think tank, assessed slowing Russian momentum across the front around 23 June, with neither side able to force a decisive breakthrough 1. Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, deputy commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, reported a daily exchange of 53 Russian losses to three Ukrainian 2, roughly 17 times Ukraine's rate, for ground Russia cannot keep.

An attacker can absorb a worse exchange than a defender for a time, but 17 to one is steep even against Russia's deep manpower pool, and it buys almost no territory. ISW assessed Russia net-losing 91 square miles to 9 June and recorded no advances on 7 June as Mediazona's verified death toll climbed . The pattern of a 94% collapse in the advance rate has held since late May .

This is the reading that explains the day's fabricated footage from Kostyantynivka. When an army is paying 53 lives a day to move a line that does not move, the incentive to manufacture the appearance of progress grows. The loss-exchange data and the AI flag-planting video are two faces of the same condition: a war of attrition Russia is losing on the maths while insisting, on camera, that it is winning.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed around 23 June that the front line in eastern Ukraine has barely moved and that neither Russia nor Ukraine has the ability to make a dramatic breakthrough. A Ukrainian drone commander, Robert Brovdi, reported that Russia loses about 53 soldiers per day in these operations for every three Ukrainian soldiers killed. That means Russia is paying a much higher price in lives for the same amount of ground. Because Russia cannot show real advances on the map, it has resorted to fabricating videos that make small infiltrations look like major captures, as happened at Kostyantynivka. ISW uses satellite imagery and geolocated social media evidence to assess actual front-line positions.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A near-static front with a sustained 53:3 Russian-to-Ukrainian daily loss ratio creates attrition pressure on Russian manpower that will require increased mobilisation to sustain at the current operational tempo.

  • Risk

    If the information-operations gap between Russian-fabricated footage and battlefield reality widens further, Russian domestic cohesion for continued high-casualty operations may erode among milblogger audiences that provide key informal legitimisation for the war.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War·GlobalSecurity.org
Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Russia →Ukraine →Mediazona →Kremlin →Moscow →DeepState →Donetsk →Kherson →Washington →Brovdi →Unmanned Systems Forces →Kostiantynivka →
First Reported In

Update #21 · Ukraine's drones reach Russia's petrol pumps

Institute for the Study of War· 24 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
ISW: Russia lost ground; new axis opens
ISW's 9 June assessment of Russia net-losing 91 sq mi is the baseline against which the near-static 23 June front assessment is measured.
Occurred 9 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Russia loses men 17 times Ukraine's rate
A loss exchange this lopsided is unsustainable even at Russian replacement rates, the attritional reality behind a front that no longer moves.
Led to
ISW finds no trace of Gerasimov's gains
The front has held at the same scale since June, when Russia was losing men at seventeen times Ukraine's daily rate for ground that barely shifted.
Occurred 18 Jul 2026
Read story →
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