17AUG

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

2 min read

15:37UTC

Terminal stocks funded the marginal molecule into pipeline storage as Atlantic cargoes kept missing the basin.

← Back to A 35-party Iran action, invisible to search Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Terminal stocks are now the marginal supplier; the buffer is finite and shrinking.

Gas Infrastructure Europe's ALSI (Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory, the terminal-stocks companion to AGSI+) showed aggregate EU terminal inventory falling from 5,929 thousand tonnes on 10 April to 5,766 thousand tonnes on 13 April, a draw of 163 kt over three days ¹. Daily send-out averaged 4,348 GWh, with no evident new cargo arrivals landing in the window.

Around a dozen Atlantic LNG cargoes had already diverted to Asia since early March , compressing the JKM-TTF spread to near parity and removing the arbitrage that would ordinarily pull reload cargoes back into European terminals. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan force majeure takes out the other direction of flexible supply. With Atlantic inflow thin and Qatari inflow blocked, terminal buffer is the only variable left, and it is being drawn at roughly 50 kt per day to keep pipeline send-out steady.

That dynamic has a short runway. ALSI carries finite stock, and drawing it during peak reload season means Europe enters May with a thinner LNG cushion against any late-April supply shock. With the Russian LNG cutoff arriving on 25 April and no replacement supply publicly named, the buffer question becomes a May question rather than a June one.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

LNG, liquefied natural gas, arrives at European ports as a super-cooled liquid in specialised tankers. It is stored at coastal terminals before being sent inland through pipelines as regular gas. Think of the terminals as the first link in the chain between ships arriving from Qatar, the US, or Nigeria, and the heating systems of European homes. Between 10 and 13 April, EU terminals collectively drew down their stocks by 163,000 tonnes in three days, and no new tankers appear to have docked to refill them. That is because LNG ships have been diverting from Europe to Asia, where buyers are paying slightly more. European terminals were funding their pipeline obligations by drawing on reserves, not new deliveries.

What could happen next?

Risk
The Russian LNG ban on 25 April removes a portion of the terminal replenishment flow while injection season demand for send-out rises, accelerating the terminal drawdown rate beyond the current 54 kt/day.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

At 4,348 GWh/day send-out and 5,766 kt inventory, EU terminals hold approximately 8.4 days of buffer. A 163 kt three-day drawdown represents a daily depletion rate of 54 kt without replacement. At that rate, terminals would fall below operational minimums (roughly 3,000 kt) in approximately 52 days if no new cargoes arrived, which is implausible but illustrates the directional pressure.

The structural constraint is the JKM-TTF spread: at USD 0.10/MMBtu parity, no flexible cargo operator has a price incentive to choose Europe over Asia. A EUR 42/MWh TTF translates to roughly USD 15.4/MMBtu, while Japanese LNG spot was trading at approximately USD 15.5/MMBtu. The 10-cent spread is below the routing cost differential between Atlantic-to-Europe and Cape-of-Good-Hope-to-Japan, making Europe effectively uncompetitive for swing cargoes until TTF rises or Asian demand softens.

Consensus view: S&P Global Commodity Insights LNG analysts assess that a three-day terminal drawdown with no evident new cargo arrivals is the signature of a supply hiatus, not a demand surge. When the JKM-TTF spread narrowed to USD 0.10/MMBtu , US and Nigerian operators holding flexible cargoes diverted to Asia, where committed long-term offtakers were paying premiums to recover from Hormuz supply loss.

Counter-view: GIIGNL (the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers) notes that European terminal operators routinely hold 5-7 days of send-out buffer above operational minimums, and 5,766 kt represents roughly 8 days of current send-out. The terminal estate is not in distress; it is operating at the bottom of its working range.

Key tension: Whether the 8-day buffer is adequate once the Russian LNG ban removes approximately 17 bcm per year from 25 April, cutting the replenishment flow precisely when injection season demand for send-out is rising.

Sources:Gas Infrastructure Europe

Mentions:GIE ALSI →European Union →Liquefied Natural Gas →QatarEnergy →Qatar →TTF →JKM →Nigeria →Russia →Ras Laffan Industrial City →GIE AGSI+ →Russian LNG short-term contract ban →

First Reported In

Update #2 · TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters range

Gas Infrastructure Europe· 15 Apr 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

EU LNG terminals drew 163kt in three days

Europe is eating its LNG savings to feed a pipeline system that has not yet flipped to injection.

Led to

Hormuz: 19 transits, no LNG; ALSI bounce was Atlantic

The ALSI terminal inventory on 25 April (5,071 kt) is 696 kt below the 13 April baseline tracked in ID:2423, confirming the Hormuz-driven drawdown continues.

Occurred 25 Apr 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Shipping and insurance underwriters

Kpler counted five Hormuz transits on 16 August against 31 the previous weekend, while Windward logged four vessels going AIS-dark for up to a month; underwriters price both the attacks and a sanctions register that names their counterparties in unreadable scanned images. Two trackers now measure only the ships that consent to be seen.

China

China sits at the end of the payment chain the 14 August designation targets: Iran's shadow banking network exists to convert sanctioned oil sales, much of it to Chinese refiners, into usable funds. Beijing has previously refused to recognise OFAC's jurisdiction over its own entities buying Iranian crude, leaving this designation to test compliance rather than change trade.

Qatar

Qatar's foreign ministry denied on 16 August holding any Iranian pilots alive, contradicting Iranian General Mohammad Bagherzadeh's claim that Doha holds three Su-24 aircrew, and said it had recovered only one set of remains. Qatar carries Iran's messages to Washington, and this is a public break with Tehran over a fact only one aircrew inquiry can settle.

Oman

Oman's shipping-map talks, covering monitoring, environment and maritime services, were publicly decoupled from any Hormuz reopening by Iran's own foreign minister on 17 August. Muscat's mediation channel keeps functioning on the narrow file it was given, while the political decision it hoped to unlock stays with Iran's security council.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia separately called the recurrence of tanker attacks on Emirati shipping a dangerous escalation, breaking from the UAE's repeated formula. Riyadh speaking in its own name over an attack on another state's vessels signals it reads the pattern differently from Abu Dhabi's flat statements.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE foreign ministry condemned a third ADNOC-linked tanker attack on 15 August in language identical, word for word, to its statement the day before. Three consecutive strikes on Emirati shipping have not moved Abu Dhabi's public wording by a single adjective.